Chilcot-rapport: Irak-krigen handlede om olie

Chilcot-rapporten, der evaluerer Storbritanniens deltagelse i invasionen og besættelsen af Irak, afslører, at olie spillede en vigtig rolle for briterne. Og at briterne og amerikanerne udkæmpede en diplomatisk kamp om olien.

"Det ville være upassende for den britiske regering at indgå i diskussioner om fremtidig fordeling af Iraks olieindustri," sagde Sir David Manning, Tony Blairs udenrigspolitiske rådgiver, til Condoleezza Rice, George W. Bushs nationale sikkerhedsrådgiver, december 2002, "ikke desto mindre er det essentielt at britiske virksomheder får adgang til denne og andre sektorer på lige vilkår med amerikanske."

Allerede to måneder før invasionen mødtes den britiske regering med olieselskaberne BP og Shell, for at forberede deres kommende forretninger. Og til et møde mellem USA og Storbritanniens forsvarsministre, Donald Rumsfeld og Geoff Hoon, i 2003 havde sidstnævnte ligelig adgang til Iraks olie i på dagsordenen. I et notat fra september 2004 skriver embedsmænd om britiske virksomheders potentiale for "substantielle olieforretninger i de næste fem til ti år".

BP og Shell vandt nogle irakiske oliekontrakter ved auktioner mod blandt andet russiske og kinesiske firmaer, men briterne følte sig alligevel forfordelt. Således mødtes Edward Chaplin, Storbritanniens ambassadør i det besatte Irak, i december 2004 med Iraks premierminister Ayad Allawi for at tale BP og Shells sag. Irakiske embedsmænd gav udtryk for, de britiske virksomheder ikke udviste samme dedikation som andre landes olievirksomheder. BP og Shell har tilsyneladende afventet vedtagelse af en ny irakisk grundlov.

"Vi fik ikke noget som helst i oliesektoren," beskrev tidligere FN-ambassadør Sir Jeremy Q. Greenstock de britiske frustrationer til Chilcot-kommissionen, "besættelsesadministrationen holdt det på amerikanske hænder, for de ville selv styre oliesektoren."

Kilder: The Guardian / US and Britain wrangled over Iraq's oil in aftermath of war, Chilcot shows, Bloomberg / Iraq Inquiry Shows Oil Was a Consideration for U.K. Before War.

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Surprise: Few wars are primarily about oil

The Washington Post recently published Oil wars: Why nations aren’t battling over resources by Emily Meierding. Does this article remove the entire foundation of this blog and the book I made of it?

Pointing at "invasion costs, occupation costs, international costs and investment costs", Emily Meierding says oil wars are just not worth fighting. With reference to The Falklands War (1982), The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the Kuwait war (1990) and other wars, she argues these historical examples were about national pride, territory and Saddam Hussein's survival respectively. Similar alternative explanations for other wars.

So, why am I bookmarking this article? And why didn't I immediately delete my blog and forget about this whole thing?

Firstly, I have always bookmarked the opposing point of view. Go through my history of hundreds of ecowar bookmarks, and you will find plenty. Also see the beginning of chapter 4 (pages 74-) and the Objections part of chapter 6 (pages 123-) of my book, Ecowar - Natural Resources and Conflict.

Secondly, although Emily Meierding's headline says "nations aren't battling over resources", I don't think she really proves this statement in her text. What she does convincingly argue, is that in the cases she mentions, oil wasn't the primary causes of the conflict. To get academic about it, for each war one should list its causes and rate them in primary, secondary and even tertiary. I am guilty of having more or less skipped this discipline. But that doesn't mean conflicts with natural resources as their secondary causes aren't resource conflicts at all. For a very brief discussion of this, see the first chapter of my book or look up the works of some of the leading scholars.

What is also interesting about Emily Meierding's article, is how the discussion has gone full circle. When I first set out researching, claiming most wars were resource wars was taboo. While I wrote up the book, that changed (pages 126-128). Apparently, now it is quite main stream to associate natural resources with conflict. And what have we: An up and coming scholar seeking to prove things to be the other way around. Isn't that what we all want to achieve?

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Guardian News / Network Rail losing millions from copper thefts

The theft of copper cables from Britain's railways is reaching epidemic proportions, costing the operator Network Rail millions of pounds as it takes on extra staff to catch the criminals and pays out compensation to train companies for delays on the system. Copper theft from railway lines jumped by 67% to 3,116 incidents in the year to April as metal prices have soared and Britain's stumbling recovery from recession has continued to push impoverished groups into crime, according to the British Transport Police. [...] The damage is also taking a financial toll, costing Network Rail £43m in compensation and repair charges in the past three years, as thousands of incidents led to nearly 1m minutes of delays. [...] Economic hardship has been blamed for the rise in thefts but the soaring price of copper has made it more lucrative. Copper has tripled to about $9,000 (£5,486) a tonne in under three years as fast-growing emerging markets such as China demand more of the metal, which is used in wiring, to feed its construction boom. [...] The number of copper thefts is closely aligned to the price of the metal, meaning that an increase in speculation by pension funds and other investors at one end is likely to filter through to an increase in train service disruptions at the other.

"[It] can only get worse. If someone is desperate and determined they will find a way. [...] Copper [prices are] likely to keep rising and the austerity measures aren't helping."
- Steve White, Network Rail engineer

I have been reading near-identical stories in Danish media about the Danish railways.

To the Brits, the Iraq war was about oil

Oil activist Greg Muttitt and The Independent has set the topic since Tuesday's breaking-yet-hardy-surprising Secret memos expose link between oil firms and invasion of Iraq. Quotes in chronological order:

Pre-war, in private

"Shell and BP could not afford not to have a stake in [Iraq] for the sake of their long-term future... We [are] determined to get a fair slice of the action for UK companies in a post-Saddam Iraq."
- Then Foreign Office's Middle East director Edward Chaplin, October 2002

"Baroness Symons agreed that it would be difficult to justify British companies losing out in Iraq in that way if the UK had itself been a conspicuous supporter of the US government throughout the crisis. [Trade Minister Symons agree to] report back to the companies before Christmas [on lobbyist progress in Washington]."
- Minutes of a meeting with BP, Shell and UK government, 31 October 2002

November 2002 the British Foreign Office invited BP to discuss opportunities posed by 'regime change':

"Iraq is the big oil prospect. BP are desperate to get in there and anxious that political deals should not deny them the opportunity to compete. The long-term potential is enormous..."
- Foreign Office memorandum, 13 November 2002

Pre-war, in public

"Let me just deal with the oil thing because... the oil conspiracy theory is honestly one of the most absurd when you analyse it. The fact is that, if the oil that Iraq has were our concern, I mean we could probably cut a deal with Saddam tomorrow in relation to the oil. It's not the oil that is the issue, it is the weapons..."
- Tony Blair, 6 February 2003

"We have no strategic interest in Iraq. If whoever comes to power wants Western involvement post the war, if there is a war, all we have ever said is that it should be on a level playing field. We are certainly not pushing for involvement."
- BP, 12 March 2003

"It is not in my or BP's opinion, a war about oil. Iraq is an important producer, but it must decide what to do with its patrimony and oil."
- Lord Browne, the then-BP chief executive, 12 March 2003

"We have neither sought nor attended meetings with officials in the UK Government on the subject of Iraq. The subject has only come up during conversations during normal meetings we attend from time to time with officials... We have never asked for 'contracts'."
- Shell, 12 March 2003

Post-leak

"Before the war, the Government went to great lengths to insist it had no interest in Iraq's oil. These documents provide the evidence that give the lie to those claims. We see that oil was in fact one of the Government's most important strategic considerations, and it secretly colluded with oil companies to give them access to that huge prize."
- Oil activist Greg Muttitt

Greg Muttitt is publishing a book on Iraqi oil business, Fuel on the Fire, and has a Twitter account named after the book.

This story elsewhere: Reuters / UK held talks with oil firms before Iraq invasion -paper, The Sydney Morning Herald / Memos show oil motive in Iraq war and France 24's YouTube (first 1½ minutes):

Press clips: Water, pollution, oil, diamonds...

Spending my time brewing up rants for development.thinkaboutit.eu Ecowar news stories get a little less attention. But here are a bunch from my news alerts that I couldn't just delete. Some of the usual suspects.




First diamonds: Dealers try to thwart conflict diamond trade in Zimbabwe, but loopholes persist

The World Diamond Council (WDC) has recently urged that action be taken to end human rights abuses being committed in the Marange diamond fields of Zimbabwe. Allegations against the Zimbabwean military of forced labor, child labor, the killing of more than 200 people, beatings, smuggling, and corruption have arisen, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW), which has asked diamond retailers to publicly commit to not purchasing or selling diamonds from Zimbabwe.

African oil. Niger Delta first: Nupeng Condemns Killing of Oil Workers and Q+A-The implications of bomb attacks in Nigeria's oil delta.

Killings, bombs, the president hospitalized, a cease fire broken, worker's unions complaining.

Secondly, Sudan hangs two for killing Chinese oil workers.

Sudan executed two people convicted of killing four oil workers, two of them Chinese, in one of the country's most energy-rich regions, state media reported on Wednesday.

So, fighting over oil and diamonds but regarding the "Water War" it's a story of peace effort I got: US to engage India, Pakistan to sort out water disputes

"We want to help countries avoid conflict over water. The potential for conflict over it exists not only in Pakistan and in India, but in other places as well," said Maria Otero, the US undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs.

Discussion of this topic: Are future wars going to be fought over water or will leaders be able to resolve conflicts as they have many times in the past?

In years to come, unless everyone comes together to help those who are now in need of pure water, no treaty will hold back people who are dying of thirst. Ultimately, governments will not have control through written agreements when billions of people are vying for water that will quench the thirst of a few million. The time is now as far as educating people all over the world how to manage the water available to them. Education is the best weapon during any conflict. It is the only weapon that just might keep a world from fighting over the one thing that is absolutely necessary to sustain life.

Meanwhile, more people are getting killed by water, rather than over water: Dirty water kills more people than war: UN and Polluted water kills more people than war: UN.

At least 1.8 million children under the age of five die every year from water-related diseases, or one every 20 seconds, the report said, and over half the world’s hospital beds are occupied with people suffering from illnesses linked to contaminated water.

[...]

“If the world is to thrive, let alone to survive on a planet of 6 billion people heading to over 9 billion by 2050,” UNEP’s Steiner said, “we need to get collectively smarter and more intelligent about how we manage waste, including waste water.”

Oh by the way, air pollution kills too: Air pollution is 'killing thousands of Londoners'.

Early results of a study commissioned by the mayor suggest 4,300 Londoners will die prematurely every year as a result of poor air quality.

Minor oil conflicts saber rattling

Oil conflicts are not just about Iraq, Afghanistan and obscure former Soviet republics in between.

The Falkland Islands

As drilling equipment approaches Falkland Oil & Gas stocks are up. So is the Argentine-UK diplomatic heat.

"The Foreign Ministry reiterates its sovereign rights over the Malvinas Islands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands and the sea surrounding them, which form a part of its national territory. [...] Argentina again warns the UK about the illegality and consequences of this new unilateral action, extensive to all private actors involved, that they will be liable of future legal demands in the maximum tribunals, for the potential exploration and exploitation of Argentine resources."
- Argentine Foreign Ministry sources

"The British Government will continue to support the development of [The Falkland Islands'] hydrocarbons sector, the British Government will continue to work with you on this agenda. [There are] no doubts about United Kingdom's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands."
- British Prime Minister Gordon Brown

Sources: U.K. Says ‘No Doubt’ on Falklands After Argentina Row, Argentina warns UK about Falkland Islands oil.

Nigeria

In Nigeria the president leaving the country to undergo heart surgery plus some Christian vs Muslim tension is increasing existing tensions.

"All companies related to the oil industry in the Niger Delta should prepare for an all-out onslaught [...] Nothing will be spared."
- Jomo Gbomo of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)

We want to own our land, we want control of the land and the resources, so we can determine who comes to our land, but instead we have communities that have been forcibly relocated from their land so that oil companies can start operations."
- Henry Okah, leader of MEND

Sources: Nigerian rebels threaten 'all-out oil war', Nigeria militants call off truce in oil-rich Niger Delta.