What does climate change have to do with conflict?

Rebecca Sargent at a piece of conflict has been reading CLIMATE CHANGE, CONFLICT AND FRAGILITY - Understanding the linkages, shaping effective responses, a report by Dan Smith and Janani Vivekananda of International Alert. (It's from November 2009 and a copy of it has been waiting on my hard disk for me to read it for quite a while now. But why not check out Rebecca's take on it right away?)

Part one - Exacerbation of conflict in fragile states during climate change

One needs only see the example of the Haitian earthquake, the current flooding in Pakistan or even the aftermath of hurricane Katrina in the southern US to know that extreme weather can have an effect on peace and security in an area. [...] Current international negotiations on reducing global warming and responding to climate change almost entirely ignore the aspect of this heightened risk of conflict. [...] Managing water supply is vital. Not only is it necessary for human life, but water shortages also affect agriculture causing increased food insecurity, especially for the poor. [...] Water shortages and food insecurity often lead to violent conflict where poverty, weak governance, political marginalization and corruption reign supreme. [...] Migration of people increases the likelihood of conflict, as newcomers are seen as an unwanted burden that compound social pressures or even transfer conflict from one location to another. Attempting to block immigration with regulations and physical barriers may exacerbate the conflict risk.

Part two - Policy and adaptation recommendations for reducing conflict risk

Good governance means increased resilience to violent conflict or poverty. [...] Many rich countries will be simultaneously shifting to low-carbon economies to meet demands on climate change adaptability. This shift must be peace-friendly and supportive of the adaptive development happening in poorer countries. For example, a switch to bio-fuel in richer countries caused food prices to rise by 30% in 2008, which directly caused violence in over 30 countries.

Rebecca's final comment isn't from the report:

If these crises are compounded and not isolated to one location within a nation, or result in large-scale destruction of entire areas, even rich states may be unable to deal with the crises that emerge. The expectations in richer states for action is higher, therefore state failure may be reacted to with all the more intense violence.

"This report explores the complexities of responding to climate change in fragile and conflict affected contexts. It highlights the interaction between the impact of climate change and the social and political realities in which people live and stresses that it is this that will determine their capacity to adapt. To be effective, the goal of policy responses must be to address the political dimension of adapting to climate change, and the underlying causes of vulnerability where the state is unable to carry out its core functions. The report sets out five policy objectives and some key observations on getting the institutional structures right in order to achieve this goal. The reports findings urge policy makers to look beyond technical fixes and to address the interlinked political, social and institutional constraints to effective responses."

Figure 1, page 10, chapter 2.3 "Climate change in fragile states".

The report exists in a context of development aid hence to some degree focus on how foreign aid from rich countries should change. From the Conclusion:

It is wrong to imply that henceforth there will be old-style development with adaptation on top. [...] it seems likely that much and probably most expenditure on adaptation will simply be indistinguishable from expenditure on development because the activities will be fused.

The over all conclusion is summed up in five bullet points:

1. Adaptation to climate change needs to be conflict-sensitive.
2. Peacebuilding needs to be climate-proof.
3. A low-carbon economy must be supportive of development and peace.
4. Poor countries’ social capacity to understand and manage climate and conflict risks must be strengthened.
5. Climate-related migration should be planned for and coped with peacefully.
   

The Growing Problem Of Oil Theft In China

China may be leaking more oil and gas from its pipeline network than any country in the world, much of it because of criminal activity.

the biggest and least-known problem is oil pilferage by thieves who drill into oil pipelines. This is the cause of at least 40 percent of China’s oil pipeline leaks. This criminal activity started in the early 1990s and it has never stopped since. Although alarm systems are installed along the pipelines, men have to be used to prevent oil theft.

Oil theft from pipelines has become so widespread that even undersea pipelines are being attacked. In 2006, both oil and gas pipelines at the bottom of the sea in the Shengli oilfield were drilled and 70 barrels of crude oil were stolen. But much more oil was spilled and that leak caused serious pollution in the area. The government came down hard on the perpetrators and two were executed. The Shengli oilfield had to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to fix the damaged pipelines, clean the seawater pollution and compensate local farmers.

Sometimes local police and security personnel side with the oil stealing criminals or even become their accomplices.

the rewards are too great for criminals to quit, even at the risk of the death penalty.

Update: Azerbaijani oil & corruption

Just filling out a bit of a black hole of my coverage: oil and corruption in and around Azerbaijan. First, an American businessman is in trouble over bribing his way towards control over oil:

The Wall Street Journal Law Blog / Breaking: Jury Finds Frederic Bourke Guilty of Bribery-Related Charges

Frederic Bourke, a founder of the accessories firm Dooney & Bourke, guilty of conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the travel act and making false statements to federal law-enforcement officials. The charges were related to a scheme to bribe Azerbaijan government officials in connection with the privatization of the State Oil Co. of the Azerbaijan.

Village Voice / Azerbaijan Bribery Trial Features George Mitchell, Suitcases Stuffed with Money

Along with Viktor Kozeny, an investor buddy who was his neighbor at a ski residence in Aspen, Bourke schemed to pay millions to the government of Azerbaijan in order to gain control of the state-owned oil company there.

Second, bloggers are targeted by authorities:

Azerbaijan: Citizen media in defense of detained activists, bloggers
(They are being charged with hooliganism for being 'militant pacifist bloggers'!?!?)

Third, a chopper has crashed:

A case brought before court over SOCAR staff copter crash in Azeri part of Caspian Sea

All just from a Google search of recent news. I will not forget that region from now on, promise.

Mexico: Death over dams

"I was there with him in the front seat of the truck when they killed him with a single shot to the head," Eugenia said. "We were coming back from a demonstration against the building of the dam, and our neighbor Cirilo Cruz, whom everyone knew was a supporter of the dam, just shot him." Eugenia’s two school-age children stood by her feet, seemingly unaware of the meaning and weight of her words.

Dubbed "La Parota" after a tall leafy tree native to the banks of the Papagayo River, the dam she spoke about is being aggressively pursued by Mexico's Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE). It would displace as many as twenty-five thousand people.

[...]

It is widely believed that the people supporting the dam are being paid off by the CFE. Cirilo Cruz Elacio, the man now in prison for having killed Tomás Cruz Zamora, is believed to be one of the first to have been paid between $100 and $300 to lend his support for the dam. The CFE is also accused of holding rushed and illegal assembly meetings to generate votes in favor of the dam, and of using excessive police force to prevent villagers from demonstrating against it.

Go to the original article (headline links) for full story and photo slideshow.