Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

As on Helgoland, so in Cambodia

Once upon a time...
Forsete, son of Balder and Nanna, grandson of Odin, was a Norse and Frisian god of justice. The isle of Helgoland off the coast of what is now Schleswig-Holstein, Germany was sacred in his name. It was customary to settle disputes of all kinds by arranged battle on islands; the term for this, holmgang, means "walk on the isle". But Helgoland could have been the historical site of Glitnir, home of Forsete, a sacred spring and/or an ancient court. The Northumbrian missionary saint Willibrord (born year 658, dead 739) destroyed numerous "pagan" sites, including any related to the worship of Forsete on Helgoland.

The invention of bronze around year 3500 BC in the Middle East reached Western Europe and Scandinavia around 2200 to 1800 BC. Bronze consist of 90% copper and 10% tin - and one of the main sources of copper was the isle of Helgoland where the cliffs have a high copper content. People all over Scandinavia would pay in dear for bronze knives and jewelry with mined flint stone, collected amber and animal hides.

Perhaps the dispute between Forsete and Willibrord might not have been a religious one only. Perhaps it was Christians claiming both judiciary supremacy as well as mining rights? During the about 900 years following Willibrord's raze of Helgoland the island shrunk to a tiny fraction of its original size as copper mining accelerated.
Helgoland shrinking. Maps from year 800 (largest, white area), year 1300 (darkened) and year 1649 (two small isles, white areas) superimposed.
Helgoland today. Satellite photo via Google Maps shows remaining isles even smaller than in 1649.



Helgoland Acantilado 2

Right now in Asia...
Singapore, the success story of Asia, is growing. Not just economically: its land area has increased by about 20% in recent years and a further 100 square kilometers are already in planning. This is possible only by importing vast amounts of sand - 14.6 million tons in 2010. Malaysia banned sand export already in 1997. Entire Indonesian islands have been deleted from the world map so they too banned exports in 2007 but smuggling is said to continue. Vietnam followed with a ban in 2009.

Today sand companies have their eyes on Cambodia. Although sand export being partially banned since 2009 both corruption and poverty allows plenty of exports to continue. Nearly 800,000 tons a year is said to move from the area of Koh Kong to Singapore alone. Worth hundreds of millions of dollars the local governor (and businessman) is currently defying a temporary government ban to allow further research.

Besides the coastal lines being weakened, leading to loss of land, the destruction of the sea bed has caused about 85-90% drops in catches of fish, crab and lobster and a near 100% drop in tourism where digging machinery and sand carrying boats ruin the atmosphere day and night. An NGO had just successfully established a culture of catering to ecotourists, to discourage locals from poaching.

Koh Kong, Cambodia.

Singapore prides itself in environmentally responsible city planning. Cambodians joke about going there to plant a Cambodian flag.


 Sources: Nordiske guder og helte, Politiken; Illustreret Danmarkshistorie for folket, 1. del, C. Deleuran; Wikipedia (multiple entries), Forbes, August 2011 / Sand for sale; environment ravaged, DredgingToday.com / Cambodia: Controversial Sand Dredging on Tatai River Continues.


Sunday, September 12, 2010

Fresh Peak Oil warnings from German military and British government agency

Spiegel Online / 'Peak Oil' and the German Government - Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis:
A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

[...]
The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.
Uofficial translation of actual report: Consumer Energy Report: Leaked Study on Peak Oil Warns of Severe Global Energy Crisis:
1. Introduction
In the past, resources have always triggered conflicts, mostly of regional nature. For the future, the authors expect this to become a global problem, as scarcity (mainly of crude oil) will affect everybody.

2. The Importance of Oil
regional conflicts can always at least partially be attributed to resources, such as in the Caucasus region, the Middle East or in Nigeria, or they fuel conflicts due to the wealth they create (such as in Africa).

The report sees – within a timeframe until the year 2040 – a changed international security layout based on new risks (including transport risks for fuels) and new roles of actors in a possible conflict around the distribution of increasingly scarce resources.

[...]

focusing on the key suppliers of oil: Russia, Norway and the U.K. It is noted that both European partners are already past their peak and that Germany is increasingly dependent on Russia, which currently is reliable but not necessarily so in the long term.

3. Possible Scenarios After Global Peak Oil
The Middle East is identified as a very dangerous region with high external involvement from many players and thus a very unstable overall situation.

Overall, the report expects a reduction of the importance of “Western values” related to democracy, and human rights in the context of politically motivated alliances, which increasingly are driven by emerging economies such as China – likely leading to double standards. Emerging economies are equally expected to receive higher recognition in international organizations, particularly those with strength in resources (such as Russia).

[...]

New conflicts are potentially arising from oil exploration in international or disputed ocean waters, where multiple issues arise, particularly around the arctic circle, with further geopolitical risks for conflict.

Also, the shift to natural gas is reviewed as an extension of the “oil age”, because it might be able to replace crude oil as a bridging source until new solutions are found. The risks for problems from transporting gas (pipelines) and the related issues (as seen between Russia and its neighbors during the past years) are highlighted.

Equally, nuclear power as a potential source is highlighted – emphasizing the risk for safety and the proliferation of nuclear technology. This would also require an increasing shift towards electricity.

[...]

Damaging infrastructure through hostile acts (sabotage, war) might become an attractive target for groups or countries with a tendency to use violence. The same is expected for electricity and natural gas-related infrastructure – they all might require higher protection.

Generally, the focus of risks is expected in the region which the authors consider the “strategic ellipse” (a term used for the region East of Europe reaching from Saudi Arabia in the South to Russia and former Soviet Union countries in the North), because a majority of oil reserves are located in this area.

[...]

High oil prices would further affect almost all aspects of society, as it will also influence the cost of chemicals and all products derived from them, which might substantially alter the nature of value chains and make certain things uneconomical – ultimately leading to higher unemployment during a transformational phase away from an oil based economy.

[...]

the changes and likely reduction in standard of living might render societies less stable and make them more attracted to extremist political positions and even trigger changes in government systems, as trust into key actors in politics will diminish. This might be a particular risk for the relatively young democratic countries in Eastern Europe.

[...]

more expensive transportation and increasing problems “at home” might reduce the ability of larger countries to intervene internationally (politically and/or with military action), and also lower the readiness to provide help to poorer countries. The focus will be more on a country’s egotistic (energy) interest and not so much on an ideal of transferring Western values. The gap will likely not be filled by NGOs, as they will be affected by similar limits.

Overall, international institutions will be weakened, as they will have less resources to provide help and support, and it becomes equally possible that help will be attached to direct (energy) needs of the donors.

4. Challenges for Germany
Armed forces would also be significantly affected by fossil fuel limits, as they are very dependent on oil products. Significant investments in alternative energy procurement technologies (biofuels, coal-to-liquids – Fischer-Tropsch) and applications (electric and hybrid vehicles) would be required, with long transition times. Further, local energy-independence of stationary troop infrastructure (like military bases) using more renewable sources would be beneficial. Long term objective would be to fully convert Germany’s armed forces to only use renewable energy sources by 2100.
[Bold added by me.]

British politicians are considering similar warnings according to The Guardian / Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks:
"[Government] public lines on peak oil are 'not quite right'. They need to take account of climate change and put more emphasis on reducing demand and also the fact that peak oil may increase volatility in the market."

[...]

Last year the Guardian revealed that the IEA [International Energy Agency] was also riven with dissent over the issue with senior staff members privately telling newspaper they thought the official numbers on future global oil supply were over-optimistic.

[...]

an internal IEA source said: "Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible, but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."

[...]

Kjell Aleklett, a professor of physics at Uppsala University in Sweden and author of a report The Peak of the Oil Age, claims crude production is more likely to be 75m barrels a day by 2030 than the "unrealistic" 105m projected by the IEA.



Losses From BP Gulf Oil Spill


Also discussed at New York Times Environment Blog / German Military Braces for Scarcity After ‘Peak Oil’, Peak Oil and the Bundeswehr, Energy Matters / Peak Oil In 2010 - Leaked German Military Think Tank Report, Digital Journal / Secret German analysis warns of peak oil and coming energy crisis, PhysOrg.com / Are some governments taking 'peak oil' seriously?.


Friday, August 27, 2010

Food & War: Highlights from 'An Edible History of Humanity'

Have been reading An Edible History of Humanity by Tom Standage. Good reading I can recommend!

You will find it interesting too if you, like me, is into Jared Diamond's books, agriculture or the more practical aspects of history. It is written in an accessible form and not quite as academic in nature as Diamond's books. If you, also like me, have already read all of Diamond's books as well as a selection of related literature and journal articles it will be repetitive at places. But at the same time full of great quotes and little stories.

The book tells the history of human civilization through the development of our food production and culture. A highly relevant book to the present blogging project although food is a special type of natural resource or products hereof and history is a wider subject than conflict.
The fate of nations hangs upon their choice of food.
 - Jean-Anthelme Brillant-Savarin
Part I: The Edible Foundations of Civilization

First, the domestication of maize, wheat and rise is retold - essential beginning of the tale. Then the spread of farming discussed. Hunter-gatherer societies have always been and still are much more peaceful than farming societies. Why and how is explored and explained in chapter 2 from reasoning with the needs and circumstances of them as well as the historical conditions.

Chapter 3: Food, Wealth, and Power

Picking up where chapters 1 and 2 left off, now the gradual transition towards hierarchical social order is described. Especially the significance of irrigation is compelling; here are a few of the explanations for the onset of organized conflict:
One theory contends that a big man or leader can become more powerful by coordinating agricultural activity, particularly irrigation. [...] control of the irrigation system would confer power on the leader [...] the irrigation system might also need to be defended, using full-time soldiers funded by the food surplus and placed under the leader's control. [p. 41]
Another theory suggests that the communal storage of agricultural surpluses might provide the leader with an opportunity to establish greater control over his followers. [...] Increasingly elaborate public-works projects then legitimize the leader's position and require a growing number of administrators, who emerge as the ruling elite. [p. 42]
A third suggestion is that competition for agricultural land led to warfare between communities in areas where such land was environmentally circumscribed. [...] When one village defeated another it then appropriated the defeated village's land or forced its people to hand over a proportion of their harvest every year. [...] This all sounds plausible, but there is no evidence that people reached the limit of agricultural productivity in any of the places where stratified societies first emerged. In the event of a drought or a bad harvest, however, it is possible to imagine villages with food reserves coming under attack from neighboring villages where the food had run out. [p. 43]
Part III: Global Highways of Food

Standage delivers a great tale of a near-global multi-millennial trade war over spices (which I must admit I've been mostly ignorant of hitherto). A mostly non-violent conflict that occasionally flared into brutality. And, amazingly, indirectly contributed to the collapse of the Roman empire that spent two digit tonnes of gold on importing spices annually, later helped spread the plague to Italy. The latter includes one of the book's interesting detours: plague infected corpses were used by Mongols as catapult ammunition against slave trading Europeans [p. 80-81].
After the year 1500 there was no pepper to be had at Calicut that was not dyed red with blood.
 - Voltaire, 1756
It is also explained how trade spread Islam by it providing suitable customs and laws. Then how the Portuguese (Pedro Álvares Cabral and Vasco da Gama) finally navigated around Africa to find unarmed trade vessels and immediately exploited it with extreme violence - bombardments of random cities, torture of innocent traders, mass executions, extortion et cetera.

Later in the 16th century the English and Dutch stepped up to compete in spice trade and global violence:
Clove production was concentrated on the central islands of Ambon and Ceram so that it could be more tightly controlled; the ancient groves of clove trees on other islands were uprooted, the clove pickers massacred, and their villages burned down. Where clove production was permitted, the growing of other crops was outlawed, to ensure that the local people would be dependent on the Dutch for their food. [p. 99]
Similar regimes were established to control nutmeg and mace production. Locals were enslaved for workforce, power was ruthlessly enforced by mercenary samurai warriors hired in Japan and problematic villages razed.

Obviously, the slaves-sugar-rum triangle is discussed. And later in the book one of the first consumer boycotts when in the 1790 British wanted slavery free tea.

Part V: Food as a Weapon

Needless to say: this is a central part of the book for Ecowar scrutiny. But it contains only two chapters. Chapter 9 on how food crucially influences warfare and chapter 10 on how some conflicts have been entirely centered around food.

Chapter 9: The Fuel of War

This  chapter explains how Alexander the Great and Napoleon Bonaparte won numerous battles thanks to superior logistics. And how the English lost the American Revolutionary War due to inadequate supplies.

The fate of Europe and all further calculations depend upon the question of food. If only I will have bread, it will be child's play to beat the Russians.
 - Napoleon Bonaparte
Starvation destroys an army more often than does battle, and hunger is more savage than the sword. [...] whoever does not provide for food and other necessities, is conquered without fighting.
 - Vegetius, 4th century
If you occupy your enemies' storehouses and granaries and seize his accumulated resources in order to provision your army continuously, you will be victorious.
 - Medieval Chinese military handbook
Besides stories of how food has influenced war we also get the story of how war inspired culinary research: Around year 1800 the French invented canned food for soldiers rations but failed to keep the technology to themselves. And it concludes with the stories of how sabotage of supplies helped settle the American Civil War and how the German General Rommel fought and lost his North African battles over and because of Middle Eastern oil supplies.

Chapter 10: Food Fight
Food is a weapon.
 - Maxim Litvinov, Soviet Minister of Foreign Affairs, 1930-39
Beginning with the story of the Soviet blockade of West Berlin in the post-WWII era this chapter moves on to talk of the famines caused by Stalin and Mao. Thus, not a war story but some of the silent brutality of the Cold War.

"Milk... new weapon of Democracy". A 1949 ad for Douglas Aircraft Company.

Chapter 11: Feeding the World

Once fertilizer was invented it became the new limit defining factor in agricultural production. Hence subject of competition and conflict.
[...] huge deposits of sodium nitrate [...] had been discovered in Chile. Exports boomed, and in 1879 the War of the Pacific broke out between Chile, Peru and Bolivia over the ownership of a contested nitrate-rich region in the Atacama Desert. (Chile prevailed in 1883, depriving Bolivia of its coastal province so that it has been a land-locked country ever since.) [p. 204-205]
When Fritz Haber invented nitrogen fixation fertilizer could be produced chemically and natural deposits would not have to be fought over any more. Since then it has only contributed to the demand for fossil fuel as the process is energy intensive. Curiously, Haber also eagerly developed chemical weapons for the German war to use in the 1st World War - which drove his wife to commit suicide and earned him protests when later he was awarded the Nobel Prize.




For a quick view at the book's relevance to development issues please see TH!NK3 / Food & Development: Highlights from 'An Edible History of Humanity'.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Presidents: "War is money"

The - now former - German President Horst Köhler has just resigned after a slip of tongue in an interview about his visit to the German troops in Afghanistan. So, what did he say?
[military operations serves to] protect our interests, for example, free trade routes, or to prevent regional instability, which might certainly have a negative effect on our trade, jobs and income.
(German president quits over military remarks, German president Horst Köhler quits over Afghanistan gaffe, German President Quits Over Remarks on Military.)

Incidentally, just the other day another epic George W. Bush quote saw the light of day:

The best way to revitalize the economy is war [...] the United States has grown stronger with war.
Coming clean, huh?

(Argentina’s former president: Bush once claimed, ‘the best way to revitalize the economy is war’)

Monday, February 04, 2008

Chemical Weapon Time Bomb Ticks in the Baltic Sea

For almost 50 years chemical weapons from two World Wars have been lying at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Authorities deny they are a danger, but environmentalists are calling for their removal and proper disposal.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Correlations from weather to sociology

The past


It turns out that [19th century] Bavaria kept remarkably comprehensive crime statistics - the most meticulous in Germany - and when laid out one on top of the other, there was a startlingly robust correlation between the amount of rain, the price of rye and the rate of property crime: they rose and fell together in lockstep.

[...] rainfall often has a surprisingly strong effect on violence

[...] The causes of any war are incredibly complex - or are they? The economists found that one of the most reliable predictors of civil war [in Africa during the 1980s or 1990s] is lack of rain.


The future


[...] the predicted rise in temperature will increase the death rate for American men by 1.7 percent and for women by 0.4 percent.

[...] global warming would produce a net agricultural gain in the US, [some] states would be the big winners and [some] would be the big losers.


Source: Global warming could bring us together - By Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt

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