Review: EARTH WARS - The Battle for Global Resources

"If the Earth wars were a sporting contest, here's how the half-time score might stand at the beginning of 2012..."

Georff Hiscock concludes his near 300 pages factual account of who owns the world with a surprisingly relaxed "scoreboard":

• 1st: USA 10 points
• 2nd: China 8p
• 3rd - 4th: Europe, Japan 6p
• 5th - 6th: Russia, India 5p
• 7th: Brazil 4p
• 8th - 10th: Mexico, Canada, Australia 3p
• 11th - 14th: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE 2p
• 15th - 22nd: South Korea, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, Turkey, Iran, Central Asian republics, Mongolia 1p
• Vietnam, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile and some African countries also in 1st division but still no points

EARTH WARS is a concise business report on the current deals in global energy and metals production as seen from down under. It also mentions the main water disputes but does not go into details on food production controversies. It is a treasure trove of information and numbers on especially Asian contracts but often the most important situations from other important continents such as South America or Africa are mentioned as after little more than afterthoughts at the end of chapters.

It's business report like writing is it's strength and it's weakness. The "bullshit factor" is one of the lowest I have ever seen. In many ways this book is just pure reporting. However, at times it is a tough read. And occasionally I wonder if I better run double checks on some numbers: Having been flipping through numerous skeptical blogs, articles and books earlier, I am of the impression that repository estimations and future extraction plans are not always that crystal clear. Did Hiscock leave out some valid doubts somewhere?

To get an impression of what the book offers you can look at the contents on page "v". Or you can take a glance at the 27 lists in it, because the chapters are very much structured as walk-throughs of those lists. So, "Exhibit 3.3" is a top ten of Russian oil and gas companies (no. 1 is Gazprom) - well that part of chapter three is an ordered sequence of paragraphs briefing on the owners, sizes and belongings of those companies. Pretty much.

One gem of the book is it's quite detailed second chapter on "geographical flashpoints". This chapter contained the bulk of the info I needed for my "contested resource territories" map published yesterday (take a look!).

The book hardly takes into account climate change. That may seem weird, but actually Hiscock barely bother predicting the future. Which is actually quite a relief. As such, it is fair enough not to mention projected environmental impacts decades into the future. The demand for renewable energy, however, is mentioned. Compared to the focus on the business as usual going on with fossil energy the demand for renewable energy looks depressingly weak.

If I had used it for my own book, it would certainly be on my list of recommended reading. It's not for everyone, though. Those other books are typically more into storytelling (like witnessing pollution in Nigeria or dictatorships in South America) or typical popular science (past societal collapses, influence of climate change on geopolitics). Normal books. Geoff Hiscock's book is a business book that doesn't dream and doesn't imagine anything.

Either way, there is absolutely no reason to doubt a fierce global business war is raging over our natural resources. That much is very clear after Hiscock's documentation. As documentation of this situation the book is a very valuable contribution. But it's not exactly edutainment.

 
Geoff Hiscock (2012): EARTH WARS - The Battle for Global Resources at Google Books, book website.

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How Much Gas Is Left? See with new visualization at Information is Beautiful

The basics:

• The world uses 2.6 trillion cubic metres a year, we have 187.9 trillion cubic metres left. 187.9 divided by 2.6 gives 72.3 but the graphic says there's only 63 years left assuming constant consumption. Assuming a constant growth in consumption by 2% there's supposed to be 42 years left.
• The top three biggest reserves are in Russia, Quatar and Iran (~53% total). The most production and consumption is in USA and Russia (~38% total production, ~35% total consumption).
• In comparison, assuming constant growths in consumption of oil (1%) and coal (4%) we have 38 and 44 years left of these resources respectively.

What is really interesting, though, is that General Electrics and BP are mentioned at the bottom of the page. Have the big corporations finally given up pretending infinite supplies of natural resources?

Canadian gas pipeline bombed

For the 6th time in nine months a natural gas pipeline in western Canada has been bombed.

"We are dealing with domestic terrorism. This is an attack on a critical infrastructure."

- Dan Moskaluk, Royal Canadian Mounted Police

EnCana, the natural gas company owning the pipeline, has received threats to cease natural gas production in the area. It has offered a reward of half a million Canadian dollars for the capture of the bomber.

So far no person or nature has been harmed but authorities fear this is only a matter of time.

Sources: Gas pipeline bombed again in W Canada, Gas pipeline in W Canada targeted by second bomb in four days, Canadian gas pipeline hit by 6th bomb

We're on the brink of disaster

Every outbreak of violence has its own distinctive origins and characteristics. All, however, are driven by a similar combination of anxiety about the future and lack of confidence in the ability of established institutions to deal with the problems at hand.

[...]

The riots that erupted in the spring of 2008 in response to rising food prices suggested the speed with which economically related violence can spread.

[...]

The cost of food is now closely tied to the price of oil and natural gas because petrochemicals are so widely and heavily used in the cultivation of grains.

[...]

zero economic growth in the developing world and rising food prices -- and you have a perfect recipe for unrelenting civil unrest and violence.

[...]

Statistical modeling shows that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one to two year period

War and Natural Gas: The Israeli Invasion and Gaza's Offshore Gas Fields

The BG Group drilled two wells in 2000: Gaza Marine-1 and Gaza Marine-2. Reserves are estimated by British Gas to be of the order of 1.4 trillion cubic feet, valued at approximately 4 billion dollars. These are the figures made public by British Gas. The size of Palestine's gas reserves could be much larger.

[...]

In 2006, British Gas "was close to signing a deal to pump the gas to Egypt." (Times, May, 23, 2007). According to reports, British Prime Minister Tony Blair intervened on behalf of Israel with a view to shunting the agreement with Egypt.

[...]

The decision to speed up negotiations with British Gas (BG Group) coincided, chronologically, with the planning of the invasion of Gaza initiated in June. It would appear that Israel was anxious to reach an agreement with the BG Group prior to the invasion, which was already in an advanced planning stage.

Georgia about oil too

Not only about oil, of course. (To the US Republican John McCain it's about "some of the oldest churches in Europe" too - sic!) But check out this Polish article: The true price of war in Georgia

The conflict in Georgia has resulted in a serious undermining of the supply route for energy resources from the Caspian basin. [...] Governments of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan recently signed agreements with Gazprom on intermediation in sale of natural gas to external markets. On the other side of the Caspian Sea, the very same Gazprom is holding negotiations with Azerbaijan. The threat of a lack of supplies is real enough for Azeri Socar to stop the expansion of a gas storage facility outside of Tbilisi, which had been planned for a year.

With regards to oil, the Kazakh company KazMunajGaz is giving up on its plans to build a new refinery in its oil terminal in Batumi. [...] Bombs also fell mere metres away from the BTC oil pipeline. The Russians missed, but the threat was a clear one.

The article also discusses Georgian and Russian national economics right now.

A glance at the map will illustrate the country's strategic importance...


Vis stort kort

...but obviously the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline [Wikipedia] is what tips the scales in economic favor of military intervention.