Some of the worst news this year was how Islamic State grew out
of the chaos in Iraq and Syria, and became known not as the
richest terrorist group in the world, but as the poorest terrorist
country. Because they successfully occupy
and exploit vast oil fields, loot
everything lootable while controlling
many smuggler's routes and ruthless dealers. I get how they
control the population by mass executions rivaling the worst in
history, denying
crucial water supplies to villages and other callous misdeeds.
But how do they manage to sell oil worth millions of dollars every
single day even as all eyes are on the region? Money talks, of
course, anywhere and anytime, but still?
Part of the answer came in this
fascinating report by Suzan Fraser and Yilmaz Akinci from the border
between Turkey and Syria, where... hillbillies, basically... tell
how they have always been smuggling. Everyone did it. For
generations. So, suddenly a few more bearded men came with a bit more
oil than usual. It worked for a time, but Turkish police cracked down
on it. Their large scale “pipeline” was smacked into smaller,
obscure “pipelines” - like the ones the Islamic terrorists have
for every other country, apparently.
Probably more efficient that the Turkish police, however, is the
Saudi Arabian financial muscle. To them and most of
their allies, the sum of benefits of a low oil price seems to
currently triumph the more obvious benefits of a high oil price.
Mainly by cutting the cash flow to Iran, Syria, Islamic State,
Russia, even North American non-conventional (fossil) energy producers and
others. In fact, I've seen some speculate Saudi Arabia has almost won
the war on Ukraine's behalf as Russia's weakening rubles soon cannot
pay for any more war. Speaking of Ukraine: This country used to be
self-sufficient in coal, but the
territory occupied by rebels and Russians just happen to host 66 coal
mines, leaving Ukraine's power plants under-supplied; and the
shores off now Russian Crimea just happen to be full of gas. What
a coincidence.
Oil have been found in the underground below Lake Albert on the border between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Western companies are working with the Ugandan government to get development under way but a myriad of issues seem to delay the project: Criminal and rebel activity is up and rising, Ugandan democracy is struggling for control with the shady closed door negotiations and now US troops enter the picture. Al Jazeera summed up the situation in less than two minutes, October 14th:
Recipe for an oil war
Heritage Oil and Tullow Oil are guessing the 2.5 billion barrel or larger field is the largest onshore field found in sub-saharan Africa in more than two decades. Production of 150,000 barrels of oil per day by 2015 place Uganda among top 50 oil producing nations is planned. The latter company, Irish Tullow Oil, is now accused of having bribed three Ugandan ministers with 100 million USD in July 2010 in return for concessions. The ministers resigned October 2011. Tullow denies allegations, maintain an anti-bribe image and have funded a lake rescue station which they claim have already saved the lives of more than 70 local fishermen. Also in the deal are French Total and Chinese Cnooc. Those corporations are expected to claim 2/3 of the 3-4 billion USD hoped to be made annually.
A leaked US embassy cable (Wikileaks, #08KAMPALA393) reveals Uganda have been asking for help stepping up security in and around the oil rich area. John Morley of Tullow Oil is quoted for saying that as oil activity on Lake Albert increase a security presence would be vital. The cable mention "several clashes on Lake Albert between oil companies and entities from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) demonstrate that oil production has increased local tensions and exacerbated cross-border hostilities". In 2007 a British drilling platform worker was killed by Congolese soldiers who claimed the barge had strayed into Congolese waters. Although the Ugandan and Congolese governments are talking and are in agreement concerning the precise geography of the border the armed forces on the Congolese side of the border are not always government-related.
An intervention overdue?
Several militias fight in the area and in just recent months thousands have had to fled their homes, hundreds have been kidnapped. Adding to the Congolese militias the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels as well as the infamous Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) led by Joseph Kony add to the insecurity. FDLR is a Hutu group whose two top leaders are held in France and Germany on charges of crimes against humanity yet whose troops raped at least 154 civilians from July 30 to August 3, 2010, in the town of Luvungi. LRA is the Ugandan theocratic militia of self-proclaimed prophet Joseph Kony, who claims to be acting on orders from spirits sent by God, and whose ranks have been inflated by an estimated 66,000 children abducted for soldiering. October 2005 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants on Kony and four other leading members of LRA; the 33 charges include murder, enslavement, sexual enslavement and pillaging.
Recently, the Ugandan presiden spent US$780 million on six Russian jet fighters. A decision that raises eyebrows in a country with a GDP of less than 500USD per capita.
"We don’t live in an enemy-free neighbourhood. So, don’t look at the purchase in terms of cost. The Great Lakes region is one of the most unsafe regions."
- Ugandan presiden Yoweri Museveni
Since 2008 the US have donated more than 40 million USD on supporting the Local counter-militia efforts. And now 100 Green Berets have been sent as military advisers for the governments of the region. They are receiving a warm welcome.
"For 20 years, the government of Uganda has been pleading with our American and European friends to help in the LRA problem, because these are international terrorists. We wanted our friends to help in providing technical support — such as intelligence — because they have the best."
- Uganda's acting foreign minister Henry Okello Oryem
"Any support to tackle the LRA is a good move [...] South Sudan is already working with Uganda's army in operations against the LRA, and we will be pleased to work with anyone who can help us combat the threat [...] We have large communities whose lives are ruined by these rebels, so the sooner we can end this once and for all will be something we will look forward to."
- South Sudan army spokesman Philip Aguer
"The Central African Republic today more than needs external assistance like that of United States [...] Many hundreds of our people have been killed, others kidnapped or displaced, their homes ransacked, destroyed, their possessions looted. It is unbearable."
- CAR Deputy defence minister Jean-Francis Bozize
A recent report, "Oil Extraction and the Potential for Domestic Instability in Uganda", warns about other dangers than cross-border guerrilla warfare: the possible side-effects of a sudden large scale resource industry entering a developing economy. President Museveni, who first seems to have orchestrated the addition of a third presidential term to the constitution then won a low turnout election disputed by international observers, is already speaking of "his" oil.
"If Museveni gains access to substantial oil revenue, the combination of considerable oil funds and strong presidential powers could increase the ability of his government to remain in power indefinitely. [...] Increases in corrupt behavior would essentially require secrecy in government dealings. A reduction in government transparency in oil and tax revenue management would then incentivize Museveni’s government to become increasingly autocratic in its relationship with the public and political opponents, as has so often been the pattern in other oil producing states."
Also, susceptibility to the Dutch Disease should be considered:
"If the government does not reinvest revenues into public works to soften the blow of economic change, domestic instability may ensue [...] The poor and disaffected youths are the most likely to turn to violence in order to redress socio-political grievances. A young, growing, and increasingly urban population indicates the potential for civil strife in Uganda. The added stress of urban migration associated with oil production may only exacerbate the dynamics behind civil strife. [...] If Museveni’s government makes its decisions public and is held accountable, it is more likely to choose anti-corruption policies that are favorable to the public interest."
The report estimate the risk of civil war in Uganda as 1.96% if the new found resource wealth is handled wisely, 14.05% if not. Dutch Disease effects could be both mitigated and worsened by the fact that multiple industries are likely to boom: in 2010 firms from Russia, China, India, Australia and South Africa started operating in Uganda after finds of copper, iron ore, cobalt, tin, gold and platinum.
"We must be Africa’s Norway. We must manage our oil resources in the stellar manner in which Botswana has managed its wealth from diamonds."
- Bank of Uganda Governor, Emmanuel Mutebile
We haven't heard much from the hopeful Iraqi politicians who once voiced similar intentions with their oil. However, it does seem Obama is at least trying to do better than his predecessor(s). And if a US president can't even go to war against someone as evil as Joseph Kony he truly can do nothing at all - yet, who knows if the Tea Party will side with Kony and his lunatic army?
Mads Brügger - whose last documentary consisted entirely of ultra rare recordings from deep inside North Korea - is releasing a new documentary; this time about corruption in the Central African Republic (CAR). Not posing as a diplomat, but having bribed his way to actual diplomatic immunity, Mads travels to the capital Bangui to set up a consulate and mingle with shady businessmen and poor, clueless locals.
Check out the 2 minute trailer...
A lot of the footage has been captured with hidden cameras, hence of less than perfect quality, the rest with a Canon 5D which no-one in the entire country recognized as a film camera. Real life crooks exposing themselves include European dealers of diplomatic passports, local criminals / businessmen, the now dead chief of the CAR secret service and some international diplomats.
It appears corruption is more widespread than most would assume. Illegal trading in diamonds is much more widespread than most could imagine. And that France, the former colonial master, is still meddling in affairs there - in a completely amoral fashion.
A must-see for anyone interested in foreign aid, blood diamonds, international diplomacy, the exploitation of Africa or just how to do a documentary. Genre-wise it is related to the works of Michael Moore and Sacha Baron Cohen, I'd say. Don't miss it.
Listen to Mads Brügger talk and answer questions for half an hour - in Danish:
