Leaks and alibis

The batch of US government "cables" published by Wikiliaks last week were partly about natural resource concerns. Some of them were about climate change and the COP-15 summit too so I have already added some quotes to the collection regarding those topics. Read below a selection of quotes demonstrating the imperative role played by natural resource riches in the private communications between US diplomats and Washington; these from embassies in countries surrounding the North Pole.

CANADA TAKES STEPS TO ESTABLISH SOVEREIGNTY OVER CONTINENTAL SHELF

The GOC [Government of Canada] is taking steps to secure sovereign rights over seabed resources that extend to the edge of the continental shelf. [...] Canada's effort to secure sovereign rights may have ramifications with respect to American and Canadian maritime boundary disputes and exploitation of seabed resources, particularly in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. [...] Natural Resources Canada also has a joint initiative with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland to conduct surveys in northern boundary waters. [...] Ironically, in 2005, Canada and Denmark engaged in a spirited debate over the nationality of Hans Island, an uninhabited barren knoll measuring a half square-mile located between Greenland and Ellesmere Island. [...] The United States and Canada have competing maritime boundary claims in places along the Pacific (Dixon Entrance), Atlantic (Machias Seal Island) and Arctic Ocean (Beaufort Sea) coasts. The Canadian effort to claim sovereignty over the continental shelf may complicate these on-going disputes.
- #06OTTAWA2294, 31st of July 2006

SHAPING GREENLAND'S FUTURE

Greenland is on a clear track toward independence, which could come more quickly than most outside the Kingdom of Denmark realize. By 2009, Greenlandic and Danish politicians will complete a new self-rule agreement, the penultimate step toward full independence. Significant oil, gas, and mineral resources - forecast by experts but not yet proven - could propel the Greenlanders after that to ultimately sever their formal ties to Denmark. With Greenlandic independence glinting on the horizon, the U.S. has a unique opportunity to shape the circumstances in which an independent nation may emerge. We have real security and growing economic interests in Greenland, for which existing Joint and Permanent Committee mechanisms may no longer be sufficient. American commercial investments, our continuing strategic military presence, and new high-level scientific and political interest in Greenland argue for establishing a small and seasonal American Presence Post in Greenland's capital as soon as practicable. [...] Greenland holds strategic value for the United States beyond its starring role in the global narrative of climate change. The world's largest island, this remote and sparsely-populated territory of Denmark is three times the size of Texas but home to just 56,000 inhabitants. A U.S. Air Force base at Thule, 500 miles north of the Arctic Circle, hosts important radar that alerts us to incoming missiles over the Pole. American investors are poised to commit $5 billion this year to develop hydropower and smelting facilities there. Exploration and development of Greenland's energy resources are just now beginning in earnest, with enormous potential for American industry. [...] A recent study of hydrocarbon potential, led by the U.S. Geological Survey, concluded the continental shelf off northeast Greenland alone could harbor oil and gas reserves to rival Alaska's North Slope. [...] Whether because of man-made climate change or a massive, cyclical shift in weather patterns, Greenland's carbon riches are more easily accessible now than ever. Meanwhile, the resource possibilities in Greenland are not limited to oil and gas. The Greenland government has issued 68 mineral exploration licenses to international companies, and expects at least five significant new mines to open in the next five years, harvesting everything from diamonds and rubies to molybdenum and zinc. [...] Our radar at Thule is now being upgraded for use in missile defense, while the base there also carries out important satellite command and control functions for the United States. U.S. trade and investment in Greenland is growing, with a multi-billion-dollar aluminum smelter and hydroelectric project planned by Alcoa and new oil and gas exploration underway by major U.S. firms.
- #07COPENHAGEN1010, 7th of November 2007

NORWAY'S DEFENSE POLICY AT A CROSSROADS: CLARITY FROM USG IS KEY

Norway is undergoing a philosophical, bureaucratic and public debate on what its defense policy, obligations and needs will be for the next five to ten years. The outcome
will have significant implications for Norway,s ability to fulfill NATO obligations as well as its ability to cope with the potential of increased military threats in the Arctic.
An additional factor in the debate is increased official interest in Nordic defense cooperation, with a particular focus on Sweden. The planned purchase of 48 new fighter aircraft (relevant to the Joint Strike Fighter program), and a decision on a costly fast patrol boat program top procurement concerns. [...] Norway is changing and USG engagement is key to avoid further drift. [...] Governmental skepticism of defense has been reflected in flat budgets for the last five years, meaning in real terms, decreases in funding. This at a time when Norway accumulated a vast 380 billion dollar surplus in its 'oil fund'. [...] We expect Norway's move toward Nordic cooperation and preference for UN mandated peacekeeping missions to remain, even if the current government does not win the 2009 election. This tend combined with a general antipathy to missile defense, efforts to ban cluster munitions, focus on disarmament instead of non-proliferation and reluctance to use its vast energy wealth to fund defense pending open questions regarding Norway's commitment to be a serious and dependable ally.
- #07OSLO1161, 18th of December 2007

CANADA'S POLICY PRIORITIES FOR 2008

Voters remain concerned about the Arctic, and the public has been broadly supportive of the government's ongoing efforts to assert Canadian sovereignty and to improve its ability to defend its Arctic interests. Especially popular were programs to modernize Halifax-class frigates, to purchase new Arctic patrol ships, to deploy additional Canadian Rangers, and to develop a deep water port in the far North. The government will announce a "Canada First" defense strategy early in 2008 further to demonstrate its attention to this issue, as well as to bolster its long-term military modernization program, including purchases of four C-17 Globemaster strategic airlift aircraft, 17 C-130 Hercules tactical airlift aircraft, 16 CH-47 Chinook Helicopters, modern Leopard tanks, and heavy trucks. The new strategy may include purchases of new search-and-rescue aircraft and utility planes, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, for Arctic coverage and an improved Arctic underwater surveillance system.
- #08OTTAWA1, 2nd of January 2008

DEPUTY SECRETARY'S MEETING WITH DANISH FM MOELLER IN GREENLAND

[The Danish Foreign Minister, Møller] explained that Denmark's initiative convoking and organizing the Arctic Ocean conference arose in light of controversy following the Russian flag-planting on the North Pole seabed. In that context Denmark had perceived a need for the five coastal Arctic states to come together to recognize and affirm their commitment to an orderly claims process and special responsibilities to ensure the safety and preserve the marine environment of a changing Arctic Ocean. [...Møller joked] "if you stay out [of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)], then the rest of us will have more to carve up in the Arctic."
- #08COPENHAGEN322, 6th of June 2008

RUSSIA AND THE ARCTIC: POLICY AND COMPETING VOICES

In March, Medvedev approved Russia's long-delayed Arctic policy. It defined the region as Russia's strategic energy reserve, called for its promotion as a transportation corridor, and sought to balance cooperation with the country's security needs. The policy itself reflects competing voices within the GOR, with security officials emphasizing the deployment of Federal Security Service (FSB) forces and the Russian Foreign Ministry calling for cooperation (although the GOR remains universally allergic to NATO's presence in the region). [...] Behind Russia's policy are two potential benefits accruing from global warming: the prospect for an (even seasonally) ice-free shipping route from Europe to Asia, and the estimated oil and gas wealth hidden beneath the Arctic sea floor. The shipping route would reduce the distance of a voyage from Europe to Asia by 40 percent (if compared to a route through the Suez Canal). These savings in shipping costs to Russia and to Europe are potentially huge, even if the voyage could only be made in the summer months. Artur Chilingarov, Arctic explorer, State Duma member, and the President's Envoy for Cooperation in the Arctic, with the support of Medvedev's administration, has put forward draft legislation that would establish a new regulatory body, "the Administration for the Northern Sea Route," for oversight, management, navigation, and ecological protection. The current draft defines the route as located in "the internal waters, territorial sea, or exclusive economic zone of the
Russian Federation." However, some Russian shippers at a conference held by the Carnegie Moscow Center October 2008 pointed out that short windows of good weather, the presence of unpredictable ice flows, and the lack of logistical and emergency response support would conspire to make the cost of insurance for the Northern Sea Route unfeasible. [...] The Arctic region, both within Russia's legally clarified borders and in areas beyond, likely holds vast untapped resources of oil and gas. While many Russian analysts are skeptical that any of these resources will be economically exploitable in the near future, the Russian leadership wants to secure sovereignty over these "strategic" resources. [...] Despite on-going efforts to renew U.S.-Russian relations, some Russian voices have called the situation in the Arctic a "cold peace" vis-a-vis NATO and the U.S. In April 2008, Russian Navy head Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky said, "While in the Arctic there is peace and stability, however, one cannot exclude that in the future there will be a redistribution of power, up to armed intervention." His statements preceded the July deployment of Russian Northern Fleet missile cruiser "Marshall Ustinov" and anti-submarine ships off the coast of Spitsbergen to coincide with fishing season, and the Russian submarine "Ryazan's" September underwater transit of the Arctic ice sheet, a first since the end of the Cold War. Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev in an interview published in the online media outlet Gazeta.ru March 30 also posited a zero-sum view of the Arctic, assessing that "It is clear that (developments do) not coincide with the economic, geopolitical, and defense interests of Russia (in the Arctic) and is a systemic threat to its national security." In a March 31 interview with Moscovskiy Komsomolets, he declared that "there have been efforts to drive Russia out of the Arctic." To counter these trends, he pointed to the creation of a new FSB coast guard force and calls for new coastal stations to protect Russian territory as outlined in Russia's new policy. Russia's senior Arctic official, Ambassador-At-Large Anton Vasiliyev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have made efforts to tamp down these more aggressive statements.
- #09MOSCOW1346, 26th of May 2009

NORWAY'S 2010 DEFENSE BUDGET: HIGH NORTH AND INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS

Additional funds will focus on improved and increased capabilities for all of Norway's armed forces, including the Coast Guard. Russian offensive exercises off Norway's coast have demonstrated that Russian forces over the past few years are increasingly well-funded and better trained, said Barth-Eide. However, Norway did not view the exercises as much of a threat, but rather as Russia's attempt to emerge as the dominant Arctic power by default. If other Arctic nations and Europe fail to engage pro-actively to counter Russia's influence, particularly its soft power influence, he warned, Russia will set the Arctic agenda.
- #09OSLO635, 15th of October 2009

Update: AP / Denmark preparing to stake claim to North Pole and Information / Denmark wants to claim the North Pole.

According to a leaked draft of the official strategy for the Arctic, Denmark will make an official claim for the territorial rights for the North Pole before the UN deadline in 2014. This approach marks a new direction for its Arctic strategy: From now on, human needs must go before the needs of the environment

"Climate Change and National Security" - presentation by US Navy Admiral David Titley (video)

Oceanographer for the U.S. Navy, RADM David Titley discusses the hot topic of climate change, and its impending ramifications on national security. Listen as he details some of the top facts and figures you should know about climate change and your future, explained in terms that even the most unfamiliar with science would be able to understand.

Disposition / key points of his speech:

1. How he changed from skeptic to concerned.
   
   • "We are operating in nature's casino. I intend to count the cards."
   • A number of the most obvious explanations: not the sun, better models etc.
   • Funny comparison between carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to alcohol in the blood.
     
2. [From 15:47] Why the army cares about climate change.
   
   • "Changes in the opening of the Arctic. [...The Bering Strait could get] the importance of the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz [combined] because we have fossil fuels coming out and we [USA] and Russia together control that strait - that's a big change."
   • "What's gonna happen to the sea level rise?" The IPCC under-estimates sea level rise. "We're the navy. We tend to build our bases at sea level. [...] But it's more than that; it's the US infrastructure. Look at where our oil refineries are. [They are in Houston, New Orleans, Oakland] it's all at sea level."
   • Ocean acidification could become a food security issue for one billion people.

Found via Peter Sinclair (thanks). (He also cut up the video in the two parts so go there if you prefer that.)

Moscow Arctic Forum promises peaceful exploitation, silent on risks

This week the "Arctic nations" - Canada, Russia, Norway, the United States and Denmark - met in Moscow to agree on territorial claims. (Strangely, I didn't notice any coverage at all in Danish media - while even Al-Jazeera warmed up for it.)

"Serious political and economic interests are indeed crossing over in the Arctic. But I have no doubt that problems, including the continental shelf problem, can be solved in the spirit of partnership. It is well known that it is difficult to survive in the Arctic on your own. Nature itself makes people, nations and states help each other there. Unfortunately we are faced with alarmist predictions of a looming battle for the Arctic. We are monitoring the situation and making responsible forecasts."
- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin

"No one problem of contemporary Arctic can be resolved by one country alone. So that's why I think that we are doomed to co-operate in the Arctic. And military confrontation especially is completely counterproductive."
- Russian Arctic expert Lev Voronkov

Russia plans to invest 312.8 billion US dollars on exploration and promise extra tax breaks for oil corporations wanting to do business in the Arctic. They have sent a submarine to plant the Russian flag on the sea bed but complain about NATO's presence.

The Arctic is thought to contain 25% of the planet's undiscovered oil and gas, about 200 billion barrels of oil.

"The industry has been around the world discovering easy oil and gas there are only the more difficult and riskier regions left - and the Arctic is one of them"
- Manouchehr Takin, Centre For Global Energy Studies

"It is a reckless prospecting endeavour, trying to find new oil reserves in this fragile and pristine environment"
- Greenpeace protestor

Sources include: Reuters / Russia's Putin urges Arctic resources deal, BBC / Arctic summit in Moscow hears rival claims and BBC / Melting ice opens up potential for Arctic exploitation.

I am reminded of George Monbiot's speech at Klimaforum09 (alternative COP15):

"If governments were serious about climate change [...] they would be putting proposals here at Copenhagen this week to determine which parts of carbon reserves would be left in the ground. [...] they would also be proposing a total global moratorium on all prospecting for new reserves of coal, oil and gas."

We have already found more than enough fossil fuel reserves to cause extreme climate change. We don't need the Arctic reserves to do that. A fact so blindingly obvious since they are only becoming accessible because of the melting ice caps.

100 Places to Remember - at least 8 of which are to die for

Having wandered through the exhibition at Kongens Nytorv in Copenhagen and now also enjoyed the accompanying book of 100 Places to Remember Before They Disappear I can't help but take note of a couple of them here.

Because the descriptions in some cases explicitly mentions conflicts. Granted: Many will change with potential drastic consequences. Be it because they become uninhabitable, hence sources of climate change induced migration, or become unsuited for agriculture, leading to loss of food production with all the negative consequences of that. Or because of any of the other potential negative changes. But most are "just" pretty spots that will change due to climate change.



In chronological order of the book, the spots that are related to conflict by the 100 Places project:

#11 The North Pole, Russia/Canada/Denmark

As the Arctic thaws resources of oil, gas and minerals become increasingly available for extraction. But whose resources are they?

#16 Tian Shan, Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/China

The glaciers atop this mountain range provides the water for the breadbasket and powerhouse of Kazakhstan. But due to miniscule drops in precipitation through the last 50 years they have shrunk by 36% already. Climate change will most likely accelerate this drastically. Competition for the remaining water resources will intensify. Neighbours some seriously troubled regions.

#26 Lake Chad, Chad/Cameroon/Niger/Nigeria

This lake is basically an essential source of life in a very arid region of all more or less "failed states". Competition between tribes and nations already intensifying as the lake is drying up rapidly.

#30 Kalahari Desert

Also drying up even beyond what it already is this desert is the last refuge of the die hard San people. But climate change could be the final blow to their basis of existence.

#68 Bering Sea, Russia/USA

This sea is the source of some 2 billion US dollars worth of fishing shared by Russia and USA. But as the waters warm the ecosystem and biodiversity is changing completely. At the very least the fishermen will have to go elsewhere or catch different fish. The worst... well... will begin with trade negotiations, I assume.

#79 Kordofan, Sudan

We've all heard of Darfur. Over and over again. And I've pointed to the vicious cycles between environmental degradation. But I guess Darfur is no longer pretty enough for a photograph in a project like 100 Places? Anyway, Sudan also has a big forest of "hashab" trees (Latin: Acacia senegal) which is the source of the largest production of rubber in the world. But business is slow both because of the nearby Darfur trouble, drought and rising temperatures which has caused a severe decline in forestry productivity. When this region of Sudan also loses it's livelihood...

#84 Niger Delta

This is "all of the above". Beautiful nature, oil pollution, ethnic violence, mass poverty, multinational corporations, rising seas, increasing storms, decline in freshwater availability, increased diseases spreading... huge chance of migration.

#87 Amman, Jordan/Israel/others

Well it's in the Middle East. Historically ideal situation for a fertile capital. But now human over-use of water resources and climate change is lowering the water level of the Dead Sea by one meter per year because less and less water flows by the Jordan River. Agricultural land is turning into desert as you read this. A glance at a map and it becomes obvious this can become a very, very big problem.


All of the above issues will of course get intertwined with the other issues of some of the regions. Like the pipelines running through central Asia. The existing political and historical animosities between certain countries. Perhaps it's in the nick of time these photographs were exhibited. Soon the footage could be less pretty.

(This post is also posted as part of the TH!NK ABOUT IT #2 Climate Change blogging competition. Most of these places are also marked in my Ecowar Battlefields Google map.)

Borders of Switzerland moving around with melting glaciers

This is about neither war nor even a natural resource in demand. It's about a peaceful agreement over changes in nature: As climate change is melting the glaciers defining the borders of Switzerland the government is simply redrawing the European map in collaboration with Austria, Italy and France. Complete absence of trouble, it seems.

Today the Swiz parliament approved of one such move of the border (the AP story is found on several online media: Switzerland expands border into Italy as glaciers melt, Glaciers melt, Swiss get some territory from Italy; this one's a bit more detailed: Swiss Approve Measure to Redraw Italian Border Near Matterhorn).

But what if the melting glaciers had been the main water source of the neighbourhood? And what if Switzerland had been in less friendly relationships with their neighbours? Such conditions - unfortunately - are less common around the world.

"Elsewhere in the world you see a much more nationalistic attitude"
- Dr. Mark Zeitoun, Britain’s University of East Anglia

Namely the Himalayas are melting. This could lead to drastic changes and trouble. First of all an increase in Pakistani-Indian tensions. But ice is melting everywhere; faster and faster.

Arctic melt also leads to conflict as nations make their territorial pissings: armies of Denmark and Canada taking turns planting a flag and a bottle of booze on a icy rock next to Greenland, Russia planting a flag on the bottom of the Arctic sea.

See Grist.org / Bordering on Chaos: Climate change melts lines drawn in ice.

Countries in tug-of-war over Arctic resources

One of the planet's most fragile and pristine ecosystems sits atop a bounty of untapped fossil fuels.

Arctic Map shows dispute hotspots

A team from Durham University compiled the outline of potential hotspots by basing the design on historical and ongoing arguments over ownership.

Deeplink to map.

EU assessing climate change security risks

Thursday and Friday this week the top boys and girls of the European Union meet in Brussels. EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, and Europe's commissioner for external relations, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, have prepared a report on climate change and security risks in advance of the meeting. Today the conclusion of the report is being quoted in literally every media across the world. Here are a few samples.

BBC / EU warns of climate change threat.

An EU report says climate change will have a growing impact on global security, multiplying existing threats such as shortages of food and water.

Financial Times / Climate ‘threatens’ European security.

Climate change poses serious security risks for the European Union, ranging from sharper competition for global energy resources to the arrival of numerous “environmental migrants” [...] In the Middle East for example, “existing tensions over access to water are almost certain to intensify ... leading to further political instability with detrimental implications for Europe’s energy security and other interests” [...] “A further dimension of competition for energy resources lies in potential conflict over resources in Polar regions which will become exploitable as a consequence of global warming.” [...] “Already today climate change is having a major impact on the conflict in and around Darfur.”

With Canadian perspective: Political Crisis Looms In Arctic, Report Says.

"The United States should not underestimate Canadian passions on this issue [...] Unless Washington leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict."
- former U.S. Coast Guard commander Scott Borgerson.

EUobserver.com / EU must boost military capabilities in face of climate change.

The EU and member states should further build up their capabilities with regards to civil protection, and civil and military crisis management and disaster response instruments to react to the security risks posed by climate change [...] "Significant decreases [in crop yields] are expected to hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia and thus affect stability in a vitally strategic region for Europe," predicts the report, while "water supply in Israel might fall by 60 percent over this century." [...] "Some of these recommendations may well be sensible, but there's no way of knowing until they're fleshed out. The devil is in the detail. It's important to know what powers the EU will assume in the event," said Tony Bunyan, head of civil liberties group Statewatch.

In Danish: Politiken.dk / Klimaet truer verdens sikkerhed.