War for territory - World tour November 2011

We live in peaceful times. Conflicts being linked to something as mundane as natural resources is a conspiracy theory. Just kidding...

Cambodia: Villages razed to clear land for sugar plantation

Amnesty International and other organisations have exposed the Cambodian authorities' systematic failure to protect people from forced evictions. Forced evictions in the name of economic development now occur regularly across Cambodia, as local elites and foreign investors seek to capitalize on a newly privatized land market and take control of the country's natural resources.

Colombia: Tribes flee civil war and gold miners

About 10% of the hunter-gatherer Awa tribe have fled their ancestral mountain homes in the past decade. Some now survive as subsistence farmers on small lots provided by the government.

The tribe has been fighting palm oil plantations encroaching on their land for about 16 years, the civil war between leftist FARC and the government has produced an extremely dangerous territory including indigenous grounds littered with landmines and lately gold mines have taken away even more land and polluting its surroundings.



Read: BBC / Colombia's indigenous peoples face uncertain future, SOS Childrens' Villages / Dealing with the threat of landmines in Colombia.

Peru: Indigenous tribes protest planned gold mines

Several protesters were injured on November 25th when police dispersed anti-gold mine demonstration with tear gas. The US-based Newmont Mining Corporation plan to reconstruct local water flows used in farmers' irrigation. Locals protest mining projects throughout Peru and injuries are not uncommon.

"Companies come here, take the gold and then go away - just like in colonial times. People feel cheated." - Jorge Rimarachin

Read: AFP / Peruvian gold mine, locals clash over resources , MercoPress / Peruvian peasants clash with police to protest against gold mine in the Andes.


Sudan - South Sudan border: Ethnic cleansing?

After a brief spell in international media as a success story, newly founded South Sudan is now fighting a "war by proxy" paramilitaries with Sudan. The latter appear to currently be evicting certain ethnic groups.

DigitalGlobe imagery shows the presence of Antonov An-26's and other aircraft at El Obeid Airbase on 14 November 2011.

The Sea: The race for off-shore resources intensifying world wide

One third of oil production is now off-shore and the rate is climbing. Resources are found in the Arctic, in the South Chinese Sea, in the Mediterranean and elsewhere. Chinese and Turkish warships circle Vietnamese and Israeli drilling ships and platforms in each their own gunboat diplomatic efforts. These countries as well as the US, Russia and others are investing in new aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers.





Read: The New York Times / A New Era of Gunboat Diplomacy.


All just one big hoax. All of the above from the month of November 2011.

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While everyone's on holiday: Ghosts of the past, crises of the present and warnings for the future

From the distant and near past

The Washington Post reports Oil leaks from 233 World War II shipwrecks could threaten US coast as vessels corrode.

oil and fuel leaks could devastate coastal communities and environments. NOAA is taking an inventory of more than 30,000 coastal shipwrecks. It has narrowed the worst-threat list to 233 vessels. That could lead to efforts to remove oil before it washes ashore.

"The number of birds [migrating
through Afghanistan] has dropped by 85 percent."

Others are in shock staring at the Staggering Price Tag for Iraq, Afghanistan Wars.

a just-released, far-reaching study estimating the cost of these wars to the United States at $4 trillion. [...] since September 11, 2001, the wars have claimed the lives of 6,000 U.S. troops and 2,300 contractors, and the number of displaced Afghans and Iraqis is eight million.

Currently hunger devastates East Africa

Aid organizations complain donations suffer from people being on vacation while the disaster has many under-reported consequences. One such is that the Refugee crisis threatens wildlife in northern Kenya.

“The influx of refugees is not only degrading the environment due to demand for firewood for cooking and building shelters but those that have not enlisted in the camps are relying on game meat for food.”
 -  Thomas Mailu, The Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS)

Meanwhile in Nairobi Kenyan Police Fire Tear Gas at Food Protest, which happen as a consequence of the drought too, and fuel prices, which, of course, is linked to world market whims.

From this corner of the world aid agencies advise the Drought in east Africa the result of climate change and conflict. We told you so. And Kenya's own Wangari Maathai, Nobel Peace Laureate (whose speech at Copenhagen University I blogged recently), similarly calls for action on climate change:

"Here in Africa, we are paying a high price for a rapidly changing climate - more droughts, food crises and it is set only to get worse.  We can see how climate change is already aggravating the competition for resources and the economic stability all over this continent. [...] Many of our countries have experienced decades of environmental mismanagement or outright neglect. Indeed, some governments-including my own-have facilitated the plunder of the forests, the degradation of the land and unsustainable agricultural practices. Many communities in Africa are already threatened by the negative impacts of climate change. Children in Africa are dying from malnutrition as women struggle to farm on land that is less and less productive.  People on coastlines are losing their homes as the seas consume the coastlines."

Just signs of the decline?

Like we have to pay on environmental and financial debts of past wars even as current wars and environmental decline unfold and worsen, so too can we expect history to repeat itself. Soon both demand and supply of the basic building blocks of society will fundamentally change

Read, for example, Michael Klare's recent article Energy: the new thirty years' war or the interview with him, The new 30 Years War: Why energy will be the next battlefield.

"The struggle for energy resources is guaranteed to grow ever more intense for a simple reason: there is no way the existing energy system can satisfy the world’s future requirements."

He's talking about a thirty years 'war' between energy sources and the powers that wield them, not a world war. But clearly a war that will weaken some states, empower others. Regarding water, the Wall Street Journal is even more worried: Water Wars May Lie Ahead.

The World Bank in a report said that 1.4 million people could be facing water scarcity by 2025. But the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast is even more gloomy. It estimates that 47% of the world’s population could face water stress in the same period–equivalent to more than three billion people. [...] Egypt and Ethiopia have been battling the issue for the share of the Nile’s water reserves, and Israel–already fighting Palestine for territory that includes precious water reserves–has started to charge the agricultural sector high rates for using the resource.

North vs South Sudan fights over oil-rich territory

Reuters / North Sudan seizes disputed Abyei, thousands flee

Sudan's northern army seized control of the disputed, oil-producing Abyei region, officials said Sunday, forcing thousands to flee and bringing the country's north and south to the brink of full conflict.

"Most residents in Abyei town left yesterday (Saturday) and have gone south. There are reports of looting by armed groups."
- U.N. spokeswoman Hua Jiang

Al Jazera / Sudanese troops 'in control of Abyei'

Control of oil-rich and fertile Abyei has been the main point of dispute between Sudan and South Sudan ahead of plans for the south to become a separate state on July 9, following a January referendum on independence. [...] The North and South were supposed to have withdrawn all of their forces from Abyei by this week except for a special joint force made up of units from both sides. The north supports the Arab Misseriya tribe that grazes its cattle in Abyei, and the south backs the Dinka Ngok tribe that lives there year round.

MSF / Sudan: MSF Assists 42 Wounded in Violent Clashes in Abyei

The international medical humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is currently responding to the consequences of fighting in the Abyei region, in Sudan. Following violent clashes, the MSF hospital in Agok, 40 kilometers [24 miles] south of Abyei, received 42 wounded late Friday and early Saturday.

View Larger Map

Abyei Main street 2005 by Gert J.

Nile water match

Last fall I was just about to write a bit about Egypt threatening the Nile upstream countries not to increase their use of the river's water when... I don't know why I didn't. A 1929 treaty by the then British colonial rule reserved 80% of the Nile’s entire flow for Egypt and Sudan but May 2010 Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi and Rwanda agreed to disagree with the old treaty.

"Not only is Egypt the gift of the Nile, this is a country that is almost completely dependent on Nile water resources. We have a growing population and growing needs. There is no way we can accept this kind of threat."
 - spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Hossam Zaki

[New York Times / Egypt and Thirsty Neighbors Are at Odds Over Nile | NPR / Ethiopia Claims High Ground In Right-To-Nile Debate]


Today James M. Dorsey published an article about an Egyptian football tournament at European Journalism Center's TH!NK5 Water blog: Egypt Employs Soccer to Assert Its Nile Basin Water Rights. Can't believe I nearly missed that one - better follow TH!NK5! So, what does a football tournament have to do with water conflict?

"The tournament aims to create awareness among all countries sharing the Nile Basin, to safeguard the water resource for the benefit of future generations. [...] Let’s face it, football is politics. That’s why countries pour money into hosting tournaments”
 - senior Egyptian official.

Egypt won the tournament beating Uganda in the final. [CAF / The Pharaohs win the first Nile Basin tournament]

Obama won't charge Blackwater with violation of Sudan sanctions

So, Yahoo! News focus on the fact that the Obama administration is "negotiating a multimillion-dollar fine". It's suspicious, true, but into the article you'll learn how Blackwater aka Xe Services is headed by a evangelical Christian and tried to get paid in Sudan's natural resources, not cash. Not exactly war for resources - but selective security for resources then.

The story of Blackwater's efforts in Sudan is a tale of mixed motives that echo an earlier era of overseas empires, of evangelical Christians who offered to help defend Christian and animist Southern Sudan from the Muslim Arab military dictatorship in the north, but also sought to exploit the region's oil and mineral wealth.

According to two former senior U.S. officials, the firm headed by Prince, who's long been active in evangelical groups, at one point proposed a broad defense package that would have required the south to pledge as much as half its mineral wealth to pay for Blackwater's services.

[...]

After negotiating a $2 million draft contract to train Kiir's personal security detail, Blackwater in early 2007 drafted a detailed second proposal, valued at more than $100 million , to equip and train the south's army. Because the south lacked ready cash, Blackwater sought 50 percent of the south's untapped mineral wealth, a former senior U.S. official said.

In addition to its well-known oil and natural gas reserves, Southern Sudan has vast untapped reserves of gold, iron and diamonds.

A long article, dive in!

Press clips: Water, pollution, oil, diamonds...

Spending my time brewing up rants for development.thinkaboutit.eu Ecowar news stories get a little less attention. But here are a bunch from my news alerts that I couldn't just delete. Some of the usual suspects.




First diamonds: Dealers try to thwart conflict diamond trade in Zimbabwe, but loopholes persist

The World Diamond Council (WDC) has recently urged that action be taken to end human rights abuses being committed in the Marange diamond fields of Zimbabwe. Allegations against the Zimbabwean military of forced labor, child labor, the killing of more than 200 people, beatings, smuggling, and corruption have arisen, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW), which has asked diamond retailers to publicly commit to not purchasing or selling diamonds from Zimbabwe.

African oil. Niger Delta first: Nupeng Condemns Killing of Oil Workers and Q+A-The implications of bomb attacks in Nigeria's oil delta.

Killings, bombs, the president hospitalized, a cease fire broken, worker's unions complaining.

Secondly, Sudan hangs two for killing Chinese oil workers.

Sudan executed two people convicted of killing four oil workers, two of them Chinese, in one of the country's most energy-rich regions, state media reported on Wednesday.

So, fighting over oil and diamonds but regarding the "Water War" it's a story of peace effort I got: US to engage India, Pakistan to sort out water disputes

"We want to help countries avoid conflict over water. The potential for conflict over it exists not only in Pakistan and in India, but in other places as well," said Maria Otero, the US undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs.

Discussion of this topic: Are future wars going to be fought over water or will leaders be able to resolve conflicts as they have many times in the past?

In years to come, unless everyone comes together to help those who are now in need of pure water, no treaty will hold back people who are dying of thirst. Ultimately, governments will not have control through written agreements when billions of people are vying for water that will quench the thirst of a few million. The time is now as far as educating people all over the world how to manage the water available to them. Education is the best weapon during any conflict. It is the only weapon that just might keep a world from fighting over the one thing that is absolutely necessary to sustain life.

Meanwhile, more people are getting killed by water, rather than over water: Dirty water kills more people than war: UN and Polluted water kills more people than war: UN.

At least 1.8 million children under the age of five die every year from water-related diseases, or one every 20 seconds, the report said, and over half the world’s hospital beds are occupied with people suffering from illnesses linked to contaminated water.

[...]

“If the world is to thrive, let alone to survive on a planet of 6 billion people heading to over 9 billion by 2050,” UNEP’s Steiner said, “we need to get collectively smarter and more intelligent about how we manage waste, including waste water.”

Oh by the way, air pollution kills too: Air pollution is 'killing thousands of Londoners'.

Early results of a study commissioned by the mayor suggest 4,300 Londoners will die prematurely every year as a result of poor air quality.

100 Places to Remember - at least 8 of which are to die for

Having wandered through the exhibition at Kongens Nytorv in Copenhagen and now also enjoyed the accompanying book of 100 Places to Remember Before They Disappear I can't help but take note of a couple of them here.

Because the descriptions in some cases explicitly mentions conflicts. Granted: Many will change with potential drastic consequences. Be it because they become uninhabitable, hence sources of climate change induced migration, or become unsuited for agriculture, leading to loss of food production with all the negative consequences of that. Or because of any of the other potential negative changes. But most are "just" pretty spots that will change due to climate change.



In chronological order of the book, the spots that are related to conflict by the 100 Places project:

#11 The North Pole, Russia/Canada/Denmark

As the Arctic thaws resources of oil, gas and minerals become increasingly available for extraction. But whose resources are they?

#16 Tian Shan, Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/China

The glaciers atop this mountain range provides the water for the breadbasket and powerhouse of Kazakhstan. But due to miniscule drops in precipitation through the last 50 years they have shrunk by 36% already. Climate change will most likely accelerate this drastically. Competition for the remaining water resources will intensify. Neighbours some seriously troubled regions.

#26 Lake Chad, Chad/Cameroon/Niger/Nigeria

This lake is basically an essential source of life in a very arid region of all more or less "failed states". Competition between tribes and nations already intensifying as the lake is drying up rapidly.

#30 Kalahari Desert

Also drying up even beyond what it already is this desert is the last refuge of the die hard San people. But climate change could be the final blow to their basis of existence.

#68 Bering Sea, Russia/USA

This sea is the source of some 2 billion US dollars worth of fishing shared by Russia and USA. But as the waters warm the ecosystem and biodiversity is changing completely. At the very least the fishermen will have to go elsewhere or catch different fish. The worst... well... will begin with trade negotiations, I assume.

#79 Kordofan, Sudan

We've all heard of Darfur. Over and over again. And I've pointed to the vicious cycles between environmental degradation. But I guess Darfur is no longer pretty enough for a photograph in a project like 100 Places? Anyway, Sudan also has a big forest of "hashab" trees (Latin: Acacia senegal) which is the source of the largest production of rubber in the world. But business is slow both because of the nearby Darfur trouble, drought and rising temperatures which has caused a severe decline in forestry productivity. When this region of Sudan also loses it's livelihood...

#84 Niger Delta

This is "all of the above". Beautiful nature, oil pollution, ethnic violence, mass poverty, multinational corporations, rising seas, increasing storms, decline in freshwater availability, increased diseases spreading... huge chance of migration.

#87 Amman, Jordan/Israel/others

Well it's in the Middle East. Historically ideal situation for a fertile capital. But now human over-use of water resources and climate change is lowering the water level of the Dead Sea by one meter per year because less and less water flows by the Jordan River. Agricultural land is turning into desert as you read this. A glance at a map and it becomes obvious this can become a very, very big problem.


All of the above issues will of course get intertwined with the other issues of some of the regions. Like the pipelines running through central Asia. The existing political and historical animosities between certain countries. Perhaps it's in the nick of time these photographs were exhibited. Soon the footage could be less pretty.

(This post is also posted as part of the TH!NK ABOUT IT #2 Climate Change blogging competition. Most of these places are also marked in my Ecowar Battlefields Google map.)

Opinion: Nations don't go to war over water

Writer Wendy Barnaby has written an essay for academic journal Nature in stead of a book for her publisher as the conclusion on "water wars" wouldn't sell. Some facts...

There are 263 cross-boundary waterways in the world. Between 1948 and 1999, cooperation over water, including the signing of treaties, far outweighed conflict over water and violent conflict in particular. Of 1,831 instances of interactions over international freshwater resources tallied over that time period (including everything from unofficial verbal exchanges to economic agreements or military action), 67% were cooperative, only 28% were conflictive, and the remaining 5% were neutral or insignificant. In those five decades, there were no formal declarations of war over water.

Three examples are explored a bit further: the Israel-Palestine, the India-Pakistan and the Nile water conflict situations. The Nile issue is about how the countries surrounding it were forced into cooperation following years of low level conflicts and the India-Pakistan issue on how cooperation has been set up in a treaty with the help of the World Bank despite the two countries being engaged in an ongoing military conflict. The Israel-Palestine issue is presented a bit weird:

it is foolish for Israel, a water-short country, to grow and then export products such as oranges and avocados, which require a lot of water to cultivate

Yes it is. Israel and most neighbours have water shortages but alleviate it by importing grain. There are a whole bunch of inconvenient truths not mentioned, but one is:

Palestinian and Israeli water professionals interact on a Joint Water Committee, established by the Oslo-II Accords in 1995. It is not an equal partnership: Israel has de facto veto power on the committee.

I'll dig out some more facts soon (in the mean time try my Israel and Palestine tags). But let's just note Wendy Barnaby's main conclusions:

Inequitable access to water resources is a result of the broader conflict and power dynamics: it does not itself cause war [...] predictions of armed conflict come from the media and from popular, non-peer-reviewed work

Undoubtedly true that main stream media is better at sensationalistic headlines than scientific journals. But is this move from simplistic causation to hen-or-egg discussion a bit too easy? I mean demand is very likely to go up, supply very likely to go down. Leading to cooperation or conflict.

water 'embedded' in traded products could be important in explaining the absence of conflict over water [...] as poor countries diversify their economies, they turn away from agriculture and create wealth from industries that use less water. As a country becomes richer, it may require more water overall to sustain its booming population, but it can afford to import food to make up the shortfall

most importantly, improve the conditions of trade for developing countries to strengthen their economies

Sure. That's what the WTO is for, right? ;-)







Barnaby, W. (2009). Do nations go to war over water? Nature, 458 (7236), 282-283 DOI: 10.1038/458282a

Search Google Books for Wendy Barnaby.

Another Darfur Casualty: Trees

On top of the human toll, the conflict in Darfur is afflicting the environment [...] on Mount Marra, the highest peak in the area, there were about 100 trees for each acre of land in the 1990s, on average; by 2001 that was down to 50, and it is now about 20.

Desertification helped spark the war in Darfur in the first place. To boil it down in its simplest terms, the mostly nomadic Arab tribes began clashing with the settled African clans over shrinking grazing lands and scarce water in Darfur

Drought

Drought land 'will be abandoned'

"In many ways [water] is the most dramatic expression of mismanagement of natural or nature-based assets [...] The day a person or a community is bereft of water is the day that your chance of even the most basic life or livelihood is gone and economic activity seeps away. Unchecked climate change will mean that some parts of the world will simply not have enough water to sustain settlements both small and large, because agriculture becomes untenable and industries relying on water can no longer compete or function effectively. This will trigger structural changes in economies right through to the displacement of people as environmental refugees. [...] In rich countries, there's always the potential of channelling water from one river basin to another. But even there people are hitting the limits of what we can do with money and infrastructure because there simply isn't enough water any more."
- Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Programme (my emphasises)

Some of the most dramatic examples of water shortages this year include conflict-stricken Sudan, the dramatic drying of Lake Faguibine in Mali on which 200,000 mostly nomadic people depend, fatal clashes over drying boreholes in northern Kenya, and economic and social crisis on the sparsely populated border between Bolivia and Argentina, according to Unep. Oxfam has estimated that 25 million people have been affected by the most recent drought in Ethiopia.

Is water the new oil?

as the population keeps growing and getting richer, and global warming changes the climate, experts are warning that unless something is done, billions more will suffer lack of water - precipitating hunger, disease, migration and ultimately conflict. [...] Ultimately, lack of water is seen as a threat to peace. From genocide in Darfur to rows between states in India and the US [...] Intuitively it is obvious people will fight over their most precious resource, but so far few conflicts have broken out. [...] water is often an underlying cause of tension, but has only identified one water 'war', between Egypt and Sudan

USA

California water shortages could lead to rationing, officials say

Water agencies could get as little as 15% of their allocations next year unless rain and snowfall return to normal levels in the coming months. [...] The overall water storage is roughly 70% of the average for this time of year. [...] a voluntary conservation program [by one water supplier] has reduced water use by 8% to 10%.

Tiny village threatened with loss of its water

Brunswick, pop. 6,000, city leaders were close to issuing an ultimatum: If Rosemont, or the county or somebody somewhere didn't take over the dilapidated pipes that carry water to 80 homes in Rosemont, the city would turn off the village's water May 25. Just like that: Off. [...] This is hardly the first time water has divided two communities. In Western Maryland, past disputes have turned on a scarcity of supply during times of drought. In this case the supply is not the issue; distribution is.

Kenya

Clashes over water kill 4 in drought-hit Kenya

Fighting over boreholes in arid northern Kenya has killed at least four people as competition for resources mounts in the drought-hit region, the Kenyan Red Cross said on Friday.

Drought threatens child health and survival in northern Kenya

Turkana district in northern Kenya is on the brink of disaster. There's been no rain for months, the forecast is grim and thousands of children are at risk.

Darfur: Drought or Islamism?

It's not that I want to write up an excuse for religious extremism. It's not even that I claim expertise in the whole Darfur situation in particular. It's just that for quite some time I have noticed the natural resources vs. civil war link that should get this blog noticed. Yet I also noticed some political writers drumming to the 'Muslim Terrorist' beat at the mention of Darfur. For examples see The Darfur Genocide and Global Warming by Fred Thompson and Ban Ki Moon: Super Genius by Mac Johnson. What beautiful little civil war in far off Africa - perfect for both Islamophobic fearmongering and neo-conservative UN-subversion. A brief quote from the latter rant:

In Darfur, radical Muslim militias have taken to slaughtering Christian and Pagan farmers for fun and profit. Since radical Muslims elsewhere in the world are generally a peaceful lot, Ban Ki Moon has wisely seen that it must be the weather setting them off.

Then yesterday the news break that an underground water source has been found in Sudan: AP / Scientists Find Lake Remnants in Sudan. I cannot help but quote:

"Much of the unrest in Darfur and the misery is due to water shortages," said geologist Farouk El-Baz, director of the Boston University Center for Remote Sensing, [...] "There have been two long episodes of drought during the past 20 years, each lasting for about seven years," the scientist said, adding that the drought aggravated tensions between Darfur's ethnic African tribesmen and nomadic Arabs.

This month the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released a report on the issue: 'Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment' (full report in PDF | website | summary at PeopleAndPlanet / 'Environmental decay a root cause of Sudan strife'). Also, AP recently delivered an article on the war-resource link (Experts: Darfur Faces Environment Crisis) in which it is concisely explained how droughts triggered the war and how the war worsened the environmental crisis in return.

To date, I haven't noticed any right wing nutcase blogger crack jokes at the actual problems at play, let alone any actual right wing politician addressing them. What they haven't figured out is how to profit, I suspect. But perhaps now water has been found and the experts have been so outspoken on the loose-loose situation there, the neocons will have to find other issues to spin for the next "anti-terror law" or whatever.

PS: Sorry for being a bit more cynical and political than I originally intended to be at this blog. Couldn't help it in this case. Guess that Mac Johnson guy got to me.