2014 bookmarks - the year in war over natural resources

From the depths of my bookmarks (that were all automatically tweeted) on conflict and natural resources, here is a quick review of the way in which Earth was plundered for natural resources in the past year. Year 2014, the 100^th anniversary of the first war to run on oil.

In short, 2014 was just more of the same. Like...

• Geneva Conventions once again violated in Palestine as the conflict seems to be increasingly linked to natural resources,
  
• gold and diamonds helped the Central African Republic explode in brutal violence,
  
• the indigenous protester José Isidro Tendetza Antún being murdered just in time for COP20,
  
• Central Asia drying up a bit more.
  

But a lot more of the same also means obscure news stories grow into reports from acknowledged organizations—like when

• NASA found out we're headed for irreversible collapse,
  
• Global Witness built a terrifying graph from the reports of murdered environmentalists and
  
• The World Bank concluded climate change will lead to battles for food.
  

Some of the worst news this year was how Islamic State grew out of the chaos in Iraq and Syria, and became known not as the richest terrorist group in the world, but as the poorest terrorist country. Because they successfully occupy and exploit vast oil fields, loot everything lootable while controlling many smuggler's routes and ruthless dealers. I get how they control the population by mass executions rivaling the worst in history, denying crucial water supplies to villages and other callous misdeeds. But how do they manage to sell oil worth millions of dollars every single day even as all eyes are on the region? Money talks, of course, anywhere and anytime, but still?

Part of the answer came in this fascinating report by Suzan Fraser and Yilmaz Akinci from the border between Turkey and Syria, where... hillbillies, basically... tell how they have always been smuggling. Everyone did it. For generations. So, suddenly a few more bearded men came with a bit more oil than usual. It worked for a time, but Turkish police cracked down on it. Their large scale “pipeline” was smacked into smaller, obscure “pipelines” - like the ones the Islamic terrorists have for every other country, apparently.

Probably more efficient that the Turkish police, however, is the Saudi Arabian financial muscle. To them and most of their allies, the sum of benefits of a low oil price seems to currently triumph the more obvious benefits of a high oil price. Mainly by cutting the cash flow to Iran, Syria, Islamic State, Russia, even North American non-conventional (fossil) energy producers and others. In fact, I've seen some speculate Saudi Arabia has almost won the war on Ukraine's behalf as Russia's weakening rubles soon cannot pay for any more war. Speaking of Ukraine: This country used to be self-sufficient in coal, but the territory occupied by rebels and Russians just happen to host 66 coal mines, leaving Ukraine's power plants under-supplied; and the shores off now Russian Crimea just happen to be full of gas. What a coincidence.

That was all just slightly scratching the surface of year 2014 in war for natural resources. On slightly more positive notes, Interpol published a most-wanted list of environmental criminals at large – go get 'em – and Egypt and Ethiopia seems to be agreeing on how to share the Nile.

Happy New Year!

---

Watch this one hour preview of Years of Living Dangerously

From the damage wrought by Hurricane Sandy to the upheaval caused by drought in the Middle East, this groundbreaking documentary event series provides first-hand reports on those affected by, and seeking solutions to, climate change.

This episode full of footage from Syria, Texas and Indonesia. Watch it.

---

All wars are caused by the economy

Just kidding. Then again...

Prince Charles recently gave a speech in which he mentioned the causality behind the Syrian civil war as well as the financial system.

"The tragic conflict in Syria provides a terrifyingly graphic example, where a severe drought for the last seven years has decimated Syria's rural economy [...] Driving many farmers off their fields and into cities where, already, food was in short supply. [...] The time then has surely come for our financial institutions to recognise that the Earth is not a limitless resource that can be plundered at will, and to integrate that principle of stewardship into our financial structures." Quote Charles, Prince of Wales. Photograph by Victoria Johnson.

The organization Positive Money is pointing at side effects from the dominant economic system. Part of their reasoning is about how the banking system affects the environment, "how the current economic system contributes to environmental destruction and accelerated resource consumption":

• Recessions (which are unavoidable in the current growth focused system) make people and governments care less about the environment
• A debt-based money system may result in the need for continued economic growth (resulting in natural resource exploitation)

When the financial system is man made and our real problems rooted in resource scarcity, desperate needs and whims of nature how come we don't fix the first to at least not limit our ability to fix the latter? Could market fundamentalism have reached a religious grip on our societies?

"Modern economic theory is presented as a science. Elaborate mathematics and diagrams are employed to derive principles that are assumed to be universal among economic actors, even though the specialized math used is a “dated version” [...] and such diagrams “often contain outright fallacies” [...] After a closer examination of the dominant economic theory and its critics, one might come to the conclusion that it is actually a belief system quite similar to a religion, not an actual scientific study. [...] The word “economics” comes from a Greek term meaning “management of a household.” As evidenced by the recent meltdown at Fukushima, externalities recognize no national borders. Our household is the entire planet, and we can only make efficient use of its resources by recognizing it as a single system. There is only one biosphere. What happens to it affects us all. We need to redefine economics so that it actually ensures our total well-being to the greatest degree possible while maintaining an ecological balance. We need a holistic economic theory based on empirical data, not traditional notions."
 - Chet Gaines

---

"Without Water, Revolution"

From Without Water, Revolution by Thomas L. Friedman on The New York Times:

THIS Syrian disaster is like a superstorm. It’s what happens when an extreme weather event, the worst drought in Syria’s modern history, combines with a fast-growing population and a repressive and corrupt regime and unleashes extreme sectarian and religious passions, fueled by money from rival outside powers

"The drought did not cause Syria’s civil war", said the Syrian economist Samir Aita, but, he added, the failure of the government to respond to the drought played a huge role in fueling the uprising. What happened, Aita explained, was that after Assad took over in 2000 he opened up the regulated agricultural sector in Syria for big farmers, many of them government cronies, to buy up land and drill as much water as they wanted, eventually severely diminishing the water table. This began driving small farmers off the land into towns, where they had to scrounge for work. [...] "State and government was invented in this part of the world, in ancient Mesopotamia, precisely to manage irrigation and crop growing," said Aita, "and Assad failed in that basic task."

For more about the invention of government to manage irrigation and granaries see Ecowar the book pages 13-14.

The best jobs in Hasakah Province, Syria’s oil-producing region, were with the oil companies. But drought refugees, virtually all of whom were Sunni Muslims, could only dream of getting hired there. "Most of those jobs went to Alawites from Tartous and Latakia," said Zakaria [Zakaria, teenager], referring to the minority sect to which President Assad belongs and which is concentrated in these coastal cities.

"We could accept the drought because it was from Allah," said Abu Khalil [cotton farmer, smuggler and Free Syrian Army commander], "but we could not accept that the government would do nothing." Before we parted, he pulled me aside to say that all that his men needed were anti-tank and antiaircraft weapons and they could finish Assad off. "Couldn’t Obama just let the Mafia send them to us?" he asked. "Don’t worry, we won’t use them against Israel."

For more Syria see Ecowar the book page 24 and click the Syria-tag on this present blog. Also, I have linked to about 40 articles about Syria from the twitter account.

There is a preview of the book on the book website that includes page 13.

Water wars!... or climate peace?

Two climate change stories: one driving African tribes into new conflict and another leading old foes on a shared diplomatic course.


The conflict

For thousands of years, nomadic herdsmen have roamed the harsh, semi-arid lowlands that stretch across 80 percent of Kenya and 60 percent of Ethiopia. [...] As temperatures in the region have risen and water supplies have dwindled, the pastoralists have had to range more widely in search of suitable water and land. That search has brought tribal groups in Ethiopia and Kenya in increasing conflict, as pastoral communities kill each other over water and grass.

Watch the video at yale.edu / When The Water Ends: Africa’s Climate Conflicts.


The diplomacy

Israel and the Palestinian Authority are among 15 Mediterranean nations who have just signed a historic agreement to work together to combat the effects of climate change, one month ahead of the next United Nations conference on climate change, meeting at Cancun in November. [...] Both Israel and Palestine are acutely aware of their vulnerability to climate change, which is expected to make water resources even more scarce for what is already the most water-stressed highly populated area in the world. The region faces a potential 4 degree rise in average temperatures and a 70% drop in precipitation. Sea level rise is expected to further contaminate nearby aquifers such as the coastal aquifer of Gaza that provides water to 1.5 million Palestinians. The annual decrease in rainfall is already raising farm prices for fruits and vegetables, and creating a two-tiered class system for water: those who can afford to pay, and those who can’t.

Check out the Mediterranean Climate Change Initiative website (via Green Prophet).

Israel uses Golan to build wind energy industry

After decades of focusing on solar power, a natural enterprise for a country two-thirds desert, Israel is starting to pour resources into developing its wind energy industry.

Much of that potential, it says, is in the Golan Heights, a strategic and windswept plateau captured from Syria in the 1967 war. Once the focal point of fierce tank battles, the future of the territory will make or break any peace deal with Syria.

Israeli Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau told Reuters that projects like the turbine field would have to be included in any negotiations with Syria.

160 turbines that will generate about 450 megawatts of electricity.

The Infrastructure Ministry, which set a target of generating 10 percent of Israel's energy from renewables by 2020, said permits have already been granted for 200 megawatts.

"If the land is returned to Syria in a peace deal, we will be compensated," [Multimatrix Chairman Uri Omid] said. "Regardless, this project can work for us or work for them. Someone will always need the electricity."

Thinking back: Climate change and conflict through the ages

The past three months I've been so busy writing for (and winning) the European Journalism Centre's TH!NK ABOUT IT #2: Climate Change blogging competition that stories I'd usually post here at Ecowar asap have lingered in my various link collections. But here's an excerpt of two of these.

A history of water wars

A very long list of conflicts over natural resources have been on my to-do list for some time. November 2009, however, the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security made available a very neat looking database on Water and Conflict online. Currently it lists 203 conflicts over water. My "top 10" so to speak:

• Around 3000 BC: "Ancient Sumerian legend recounts the deeds of the deity Ea, who punished humanity for its sins by inflicting the Earth with a six-day storm. The Sumerian myth parallels the Biblical account of Noah and the deluge, although some details differ." Sorry, couldn't help it.


• Around 2500 BC: "Lagash-Umma Border Dispute: the dispute over the “Gu’edena” (edge of paradise) region begins. Urlama, King of Lagash from 2450 to 2400 BC, diverts water from this region to boundary canals, drying up boundary ditches to deprive Umma of water. His son Il cuts off the water supply to Girsu, a city in Umma (present-day Iraq)." Here, water supply is used as a military tool. There are plenty of examples from the Fertile Crescent BC.


• 605 - 562 BC: "Nebuchadnezzar builds immense walls around Babylon, using the Euphrates and canals as defensive moats surrounding the inner castle." OK so the guy they named a "ship" after in The Matrix trilogy invented the moat.


• 1748: "Ferry house on Brooklyn shore of East River burns down. New Yorkers accuse Brooklynites of having set the fire as revenge for unfair East River water rights." Original terrorism from the USA. The US and Canada provides many examples of civilians sabotaging dams and reservoirs to the list and at least one murder.


• 1870s to 1881: "Recurrent friction and eventual violent conflict over water rights in the vicinity of Tularosa, New Mexico (USA) involving villagers, ranchers, and farmers."


• WWII: "Hydroelectric dams routinely bombed as strategic targets" and at least eight other specific incidents mentioned.


• 1947 onwards: Pakistan, India and Bangladesh in disputes over the Ganges and Indus.


• 1951-1953: "Jordan makes public its plans to irrigate the Jordan Valley by tapping the Yarmouk River. Israel responds by commencing drainage of the Huleh swamps located in the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria; border skirmishes ensue between Israel and Syria. [...] Israel begins construction of its National Water Carrier to transfer water from the north of the Sea of Galilee out of the Jordan basin to the Negev Desert for irrigation. Syrian military actions along the border and international disapproval lead Israel to move its intake to the Sea of Galilee." This was just the beginning - several more examples on the list.


• 1963-1964: "Creation of boundaries in 1948 leaves Somali nomads under Ethiopian rule. Border skirmishes occur over disputed territory in Ogaden desert where critical water and oil resources are located; cease-fire is negotiated only after several hundred are killed."


• 1978-1984: "Demonstrations in Juba, Sudan in 1978 opposing the construction of the Jonglei Canal lead to the deaths of two students. Construction of the Jonglei Canal in the Sudan is forcibly suspended in 1984 following a series of attacks on the construction site."


• 1982: "177 civilians killed in Rio Negro [Guatemala] over opposition to Chixoy hydroelectric dam."

From history to forecast

I've also been thinking about writing a summary of the history of climate change and conflict for both Ecowar and TH!NK (although it'd probably be better suited for a bigger project). But when someone else does just that and does a good job, all I do is link. Such is the first link here: A brief history of climate change and conflict by James R. Lee. Most of its examples are also discussed in detail in Jared Diamond's Collapse. One isn't: The extinction of Neanderthals which seems to have been caused by a combination of cooling climate and Sapiens' expansion northward.

First, the article re-emphasizes the fact that climate change causing conflict isn't a simple cause and effect relationship. It cannot be said often enough: Both sociology (which would be the social science to predict and explain conflict) and ecology (the natural science accounting climatic impacts) are complex areas of understanding. Looking at mainly the impacts of the medieval warm period and the Little Ice Age on such civilizations as the Mayans, the Vikings and the Anasazi principles and trends are boldly extracted. These I'll further simplify (re-hashed quotes) for conciseness.

Historical case studies suggest three paths from climate change to conflict:

• Sustained trends: conflict has the potential to emerge after a sustained period of divergent climate patterns


• Intervening variables: climate change alone won't cause conflict but, along with other factors, will contribute to and shape it


• The need for conflict triggers: an assassination, extreme natural event, or random act of group violence--is usually required to ignite violent conflict

Current climate change conflicts are crudely lumped in two categories:

• Hot areas: Between smaller groups (tribes, cities) fighting in desperation for access to resources mainly made scarce by changes in precipitation and increased evaporation ("water wars")


• Cold areas: Between states seeking the opportunity to exploit resources made available by warming temperatures

These principles are suggested as guidelines for preparing for the wars and fights of the future.

New Scientist: Is this the beginning of water wars?

Barcelona and the surrounding region are suffering the worst drought in decades. There are several possible solutions, including diverting a river, and desalinating water. But the city looks like it will ship water from the French port of Marseilles.

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers start in Turkey and supply Syria and Iraq. The Turkish government is building dams on those rivers, reducing the flow downstream and stoking long-standing tensions with its neighbours.

Somewhat sensationalist headline perhaps. But none the less... here we go. This situation is expected to worsen and spread. Trade solutions are still possible but as soon as neighboring countries start both thirsting more radical approaches will be attempted.